FED: KC Fed's Schmid: Rate Cuts Risk More Harm To Inflation Than Help To Labor

• Crude is extending a recent bearish theme, with WTI briefly sinking below $55 for the first time since Feb 2021, as oversupply concerns remain in focus and the market assesses some positive signs in Ukraine peace talks.
• WTI Jan 26 is down by 2.7% at $55.3/bbl.
• President Trump said a deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine is closer than ever after talks as US negotiators offered more significant security guarantees to Kyiv.
• For WTI futures, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• A key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.53.
• Elsewhere, spot gold is little changed on Tuesday, as the long-awaited US employment report painted a mixed picture of the US labour market, prompting a volatile session for the US dollar.
• Spot gold is currently 0.2% higher on the session at $4,312/oz, just below recent two-month highs.
• A bullish theme in gold remains intact, with attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4,381.5, the Oct 20 high, followed by $4,400 round number resistance.
• Meanwhile, copper has fallen by 0.9% to $537/lb today, leaving it 3% below last week’s highs.
• Copper futures remain in a corrective consolidation mode. However, resistance at $550 has been pierced and a clear break would open $588.70 next, the Jul 30 high.

• Stocks held narrowly mixed to weaker late Tuesday, cautiously drifting off second half lows along with Treasuries, Nasdaq outperforming. Stock indexes had reversed early gains to weaker following this morning's data that did little to shift rate guidance expectations after last week's third consecutive 25bp cut.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 329.66 points (-0.68%) at 48079.6, S&P E-Mini Futures down 29.5 points (-0.43%) at 6851, Nasdaq up 12.6 points (0.1%) at 23068.28.
• Energy, Health Care and Financials sector shares led declines in late trade, oil and gas shares weighing on the former with crude prices broadly lower (WTI currently -1.48 to 55.34, oversupply cited):
  • Phillips 66 -5.84%, APA Corp -5.60%, Marathon Petroleum -5.06%, Halliburton -4.33%, Baker Hughes -4.24% and Coterra Energy -3.90%.
  • Humana -5.74%, Pfizer -4.60%, Centene Corp -4.46%, Molina Healthcare -3.32% and Bio-Techne Corp -3.22%.
  • Progressive Corp -2.09%, Bank of New York Mellon -2.03%, Aflac -1.93%, Brown & Brown -1.92% and Fiserv -1.91%.
• On the positive side, a mix of Consumer Discretionary/Staples and Technology sector shares continued to lead advances in late trade: Comcast Corp +4.93%, Estee Lauder Cos +3.23%, United Airlines Holdings +3.18%, Sandisk Corp +2.78%, Dell Technologies +2.31%, Zoetis +2.29% and Vistra Corp +2.23%.

• RES 4: 184.63 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 183.43 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 183.16 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 182.23 @ 16:30 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 181.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 179.09 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.50 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 182.01, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the trend. Sights are on 184.63, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 181.20, the 20-day EMA.