OIL: Kazakhstan Restores Output At No. 3 Oil And Gas Field

New Fed Governor Miran unsurprisingly argues for significantly lower policy interest rates in his first prepared remarks (link) since being appointed to the Board, calling current rates "very restrictive".

• The central basis of his argument is that the neutral rate has shifted lower, making immediate easing appropriate: "Because many r* estimates are based on empirical models requiring a great deal of time-series data, they can be backward-looking and slow to adjust. Moving too slowly to update a rapidly changing neutral rate raises the risk of policy mistakes....In my view, insufficiently accounting for the strong downward pressure on the neutral rate resulting from changes in border and fiscal policies is leading some to believe policy is less restrictive than it actually is."
• He goes through various facets of this shift in the neutral rate, citing "nonmonetary factors—such as shifts in border and tax policy, trade renegotiation, and regulatory dynamics—that can have substantial effects on the appropriate setting for monetary policy". He also notes expectations for further declines in housing inflation, and for downward pressure on the output gap as a result of governmental policy changes.
• He applies his estimates to the Taylor rule to estimate where appropriate policy is now, judging that inflation, the neutral rate of interest, and the output gap all point to lower rates being necessitated.
• His "general ballpark" estimate: "I believe the appropriate fed funds rate is in the mid-2 percent area, almost 2 percentage points lower than current policy. The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent. However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed's employment mandate."
• He says in Q&A after the speech: "If you keep policy this degree of restrictive for too long, you're not  going to allow things to move in the other direction. And so you're going to create a situation in which an output gap expands. And so in my opinion, it's imperative that we get closer to neutral quickly. And so I thought three, sort of a series of 50s [bp cuts] to recalibrate interest rates was the appropriate policy."
• Getting back to his September Dot Plot submission, Miran answering questions after the speech appears to see 1 more 25bp cut in 2026 and 1 more in 2027 based on the Dot Plot (after getting rates down to 2.75-3.00% by end-2025 per the Dot Plot), to 2.25-2.50%. That's the lowest dot throughout.
• He also says in Q&A that he penciled in GDP growth in the mid-2% area under his rate forecast - if so, he is one of the biggest growth optimists: In the September SEP, the two highest 2026 GDP projections (of 19) were 1 at 2.4-2.5%, and 1 at 2.6-2.7%. (The median was 1.8%).

• RES 4: 114-15  1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-24+ @ 18:37 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 112-21+/112-15+ Intraday low / High Aug 5  and 14 
• SUP 2: 112-08+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.

• over -7,500 TYX5 113.5/114.5/115.5 1x3x2 call flys, collecting 2 on the package (total volume on the 114.5 call over 40k)
• Meanwhile, over +155,000 TYV5 114 calls, 31-33 ref 112-27 to -24.5