WTI TECHS: (K5) Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $74.66 - High Jan 22
- RES 2: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 1: $72.10 - High Apr 1
- PRICE: $71.10 @ 07:15 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: $69.01 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $66.09/64.85 - Low Mar 19 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 4: $60.98 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
WTI futures traded sharply higher Monday. This undermines the medium-term bearish condition and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. The rally has exposed the next key resistance at $72.91, the Feb 11 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish theme. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $69.01, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would signal a potential reversal.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 1.2880 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2716 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 1.2604 @ 06:24 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 1.2538 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 3: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2249 Low Feb 3
A bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact - for now - and this suggests the latest pullback is likely a correction. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2538, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Feb | BOE Lending/M4 Data |
| 03-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 04-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 05-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Services/Composite Final PMI |
| 05-Mar | 1430 | Feb | TSC: Bailey/Pill/Taylor/Greene |
| 05-Mar | 1430 | Feb | Greene annual report |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Construction PMI |
| 07-Mar | 1500 | Feb | BOE's Mann lecture at RBNZ on 'holding anchor' |
| 10-Mar | 0001 | Feb | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Mar | 0001 | Feb | RICS House Prices |
| 12-Mar | 0730 | Feb | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 |
| 14-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Monthly Activity Data |
| 14-Mar | 0730 | Feb | DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed |
| 17-Mar | - | Feb | Bank of England Meeting |
| 17-Mar | 0001 | Feb | Rightmove House Prices Index |
| 18-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Consumer Price inflation weight update |
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 118010 High Feb 28
- RES 1: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 117.700 @ 06:04 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 117.422 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.240/116.870 Low Feb 24 / 19 and a S/T bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 116.550 Low Jan 24
Bobl futures traded higher last week and despite the latest pullback, the contract maintains a firmer tone. Price has cleared resistance at 117.600. This undermines a recent bearish theme and instead, the move higher exposes resistance at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high and a key hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.467, the 20-day EMA.
