BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Mar-13 07:19
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.49 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $70.88 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
The trend condition in Brent futures is unchanged and the direction remains down. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is unchanged at $73.39, the 50-day EMA.
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BUNDS: Heavy suppply and Fed Powell are in focus Today
Feb-11 07:17
- There's very little change for Bund, although the overnight session sees a slightly wider range, volumes on both sides of the Atlantic are on the low side.
- Bund and Tnotes are offered, after Trump ordered a 25% Tariff on all Steel and Aluminium Imports, but the German contract remains within the Initial support of 132.72 and resistance at 133.86.
- For the US 10yr, TYH5 is testing trendline right here at 109.03, although most desks will look for immediate support at 109.01, the fast market printed low, post NFP.
- This is a lighter Week on the Data front, with the US CPI (Wednesday) the key release, and for the UK, GDP (Thursday).
- There's no notable Data due for today.
- BoE Mann gave an Interview with the FT Yesterday, so today could be a lesser event, attention will be on Powell who testifies at the Senate.
- SUPPLY: Early focus will be on supply in Europe and later in the US, Netherlands €2bn 2047 (equates to 30.3k Bund) should weigh, Germany €5bn Bobl (equates to ~47.5k Bobl) will weigh. US Sells $58bn of 3yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: EU 2031 Tap/2050 Green, Italy 2040, UK 2035.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Mann, Bailey, Fed Powell, Hammack, Williams, Bowman, ECB Schnabel.
MNI: NORWAY Q4 MAINLAND GDP -0.4% Q/Q
Feb-11 07:07
- MNI: NORWAY Q4 MAINLAND GDP -0.4% Q/Q
NORWAY: Q4 Mainland GDP Much Weaker Than Expected
Feb-11 07:03
Mainland GDP at -0.4% Q/Q was quite a bit weaker than both consensus and the Norges Bank December MPR projections of 0.3% Q/Q. Further details to follow.
- NOSEK is around 10 pips below pre-release levels at typing.
- A 25bp Norges Bank cut in March has already been well-signalled, but the weak reading may have dovish implications for the rate path further out the curve.
