EU FINANCIALS: Jyske Bank - Q1 25 Earnings
May-07 08:30
Small credit positive. Revenue beats expectations (-5.9Y YoY, -4.6% QoQ), through a small NII beat and a decent fee income beat. A loan loss write back of DKK 66m flatters net income, but asset quality is high and Stage 3 loans do decrease.
- CET1 Declined from 17.6% to 16.1%. 1% due to Basel IV implementation. This accounts fully for the ongoing DK2.25bn buyback announced in Feb.
- "*JYSKE 1Q NET INTEREST INCOME DKK2.21B, EST. DKK2.17B
- *JYSKE 1Q NET REV. DKK3.23B, EST. DKK3.15B
- *JYSKE 1Q NET INCOME DKK1.26B, EST. DKK1.11B"
3 Month Performance (05/06/25 - 02/07/25)
- JYBC Sr Preferred +3bps while DE Banks + 2bps & € Banks +12bps
- JYBC Sr Non Preferred +9bps while DE Banks + 13bps & € Banks +22bps
- JYBC Tier 2 +37bps while DE Banks + 39bps & € Banks +32bps
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CROSS ASSET: UBS Look For Further Equity Selling & Bond Buying From CTAs
Apr-07 08:29
UBS' latest CTA positioning update notes the following:
- “reduction of CTA equity exposure in the past few weeks is helping them navigate the Tariff-induced turbulence. Before the announcement on Wednesday, they were more or less neutral and are about to turn net short. Unless equity prices rebound by at least 5%, CTAs will be selling. By probability weighting different scenarios, we see $40/50bln of potential selling over the next two weeks”.
- “Bonds are back in CTAs' favour. After being consistently underweight duration since 2022, CTAs are about to turn bullish this month. We expect them to buy all major bond futures, 10y JGBs are experiencing one of the largest reversals ever”.
- “A meltdown in credit, CTAs are aggressive sellers and likely to remain so in the near term. Itraxx Main and CDX IG will be the most impacted by their coming flows”.
- “CTAs have not done much in FX in the last 2 weeks, a little bit of G10 FX buying vs. a little bit of EM FX selling. We expect FX flows to restart in April, starting by selling the USD. JPY, GBP, CHF & CNY are likely to be the main beneficiaries, at least in the short-term”.
- “In commodities, we expect CTAs to sell all four cohorts, including precious metals. They remain max long Gold but are likely to sell Silver and Platinum in size. Industrial metals and Energy should remain under heavy CTAs' selling pressure”.
BUNDS: German 2s/10s Block trades
Apr-07 08:26
German 2s/10s, suggest steepener:
- RXM5 ~2.4k sold at 131.65.
- DUM5 ~13.5k bought at 107.70.
SOFR: SFRM6/Z6/M7 Fly Sold
Apr-07 08:23
Recent trade in the SFRM6/Z6/M7 fly saw ~3K given at -11.5.
