STIR: Just Over 50bp Of Cuts Priced Through Year-End
No lasting reaction in GBP STIRs as equities tick higher and Bunds move lower through the old Eurex open.
- Much of the post-settlement dovish move that came in SONIA futures/wider core global FI markets remains intact.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more dovish through ’25 contracts, 18.5bp of easing priced through May, 24bp through June, 37.5bp through August and 52bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to +4.5.
- Little of note on the UK calendar ahead of the weekend, which will leave focus on macro and cross-market cues. The U.S. NFP release headlines the global calendar.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.457 | +0.2 |
May-25 | 4.270 | -18.5 |
Jun-25 | 4.214 | -24.1 |
Aug-25 | 4.081 | -37.4 |
Sep-25 | 4.044 | -41.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.957 | -49.8 |
Dec-25 | 3.936 | -52.0 |
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31
- RES 1: 6069.00 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 6031.75 @ 05:02 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 5935.50 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance
Monday’s initial sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract and breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance is at 6069.00, Tuesday’s intraday high. Gains are considered corrective, however, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
USD: Early selling interest noted
- The Dollar sees a flat session overall against G10, but there's a couple of standout Currencies, the Yen is up another 0.74%, and the Kiwi continues to recover from its worst printed levels since 2022, now has now bounced 2.77% in the past 2 sessions.
- The Yen stands out once again the fall in Yield combined with a Wage beat in Japan overnight sees the Currency up 0.74% into the European session.
- The next immediate support in USDJPY was seen at 153.16, so far holding, although did print a 153.10 low overnight and we are testing that area once again now.
- A clear break through the 153.00 figure will open to 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave
- RES 4: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2861.9 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2857.8@ 07:28 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: $2746.5 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $2698.4 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and this week’s appreciation, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2867.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2698.4, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2746.5.
