STIR: Just Over 40bp OF BoE Cuts Still Priced

• Gilt Opening calls can only be taken for the US Tnotes, looking around 91.04.
• Recall that Eurex is closed, Gilt will be closing early at 12.15GMT.
• For the US, CME closes at 1315ET, NYSE at 1300ET.

• As noted this Week and the outlook still stands since USDSEK is now probing 9.1500.
• Given that the SEK is set to be the Yearly winner, now up 20.77% for that period, the USDSEK chart gets interesting from here.
• The risk is tilted to the downside with test towards 9.1000 initially.
• Looking further out and on a more medium/longer term basis, could 9.000 be on the card as the Fed look to cut more Interest Rate?

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance LP).

• RES 4: 92.31 High Nov 12
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance         
• RES 2: 91.78/93 High Dec 17 / High Nov 27
• RES 1: 91.18 High Dec 23      
• PRICE: 91.02 @ Close Dec 23
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.