UK DATA: June Retail Sales Weaker-than-expected Despite Hot Weather Boost
- UK retail sales were softer-than-expected for the second consecutive month in June, with last month’s weak reading also revised a tenth lower on a sequential basis. There has been a bit of early pressure on GBP FX following the release, but EURGBP is still only up 0.12% at typing, testing yesterday's 0.8710 high.
- The retail sales data is often too volatile to garner much attention from the MPC, but readings since April are consistent with increasing consumer caution against a backdrop of still-elevated inflation and expectations for more fiscal tightening in the Autumn.
- Sales ex auto fuel rose 0.6% M/M, up from -2.9% prior (revised from -2.8% initial). On an annual basis, sales rose 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.9% cons, -1.2% prior), while 3m/3m growth was 0.1% (vs 1.2% prior).
- Including auto fuel, sales grew 0.9% M/M (vs 1.2% cons, -2/8% prior) and 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.8% cons, -1.1% prior). 3m/3m growth was 0.2% (vs 1.0% prior).
- The ONS notes that “Food store sales volume rose following a fall in May 2025 with retailers reporting the warm weather had a positive effect”.
- Overnight, July GFK consumer confidence was -19 (vs -20 cons, -18 prior). While not one of the sub-components included in the headline index, the press release noted that “With speculation growing over possible tax rises in the Autumn Budget, and price pressure contributing not just to higher inflation already but also to the likelihood of worse inflation to come….Our Savings Index is significant this month because it does indeed suggest people are anxious. It has jumped seven points to +34 to reach the highest level since November 2007”.
- The CBI July retail trade report is due next Monday.
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BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Continues To Point North
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.13 @ Close Jun 24
- SUP 1: 119.91 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Gains earlier this month reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 119.91, the May 29 low.
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Italy Q3 funding plan with MNI expectations
Italy released its Q3 issuance programme on Tuesday. The MEF notes that E172bln was issued between January and May with a further E51bln expected in June. This leaves E115-125bln of gross issuance expected for H2. E225-245bln of gross issuance expected for Q2-Q4. This equates to gross issuance of E338-348bln for 2025, broadly in line with the E332-352bln of gross issuance from a similar calculation a quarter ago and with the initial 2025 target of E330-350bln.
New issues expected in Q3 (up to 10-year):
- 3-year BTP maturing 15 January 2029 (minimum outstanding E9bln, MNI expect a July launch).
- 7-year BTP maturing 15 November 2032 (minimum outstanding E10bln, MNI expect a September launch).
- 10-year BTP maturing 1 February 2036 (minimum outstanding E10bln, MNI expect a September launch).
Issues expected to be reopened in Q3 (up to 10-year):
- 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (minimum E9bln outstanding already exceeded).
- 5-year 2.95% Jul-30 BTP (minimum E10bln outstanding already exceeded).
- 7-year BTP maturing 15 July 2032 (minimum outstanding E10bln, already exceeded)
- 10-year BTP maturing 1 October 2035 (minimum outstanding E10bln)
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Just Below Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 2: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8575 High Jun 23
- PRICE: 0.8529 @ 06:59 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 0.8498/8471 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP continues to trade just below its recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - this reinforces the current bull theme. Scope is seen for a test of 0.8592 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8471, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
