US DATA: June Retail Sales Surge Led By Ex-Control Group Categories

Retail sales were more solid than expected in June.

• It was expected that the GDP-input Control Group category would come in stronger than the other main aggregates, due in large part to anticipated weakness in auto sales, but this did not play out: Control was actually one of the weaker parts of this report relatively speaking, rising 0.5% M/M - above expectations of 0.3%, but this was offset by a 0.2pp downward rev to 0.2% in May.
• And - surprisingly - each of the ex-control group retail sales categories: motor vehicles (1.4% M/M after -4.2%; most had expected flat/negative, with the broader motor vehicles/parts learers rising 1.2%), building/gardening materials (0.9% after -2.7%), gasoline (0.0% after -1.3%) and food services/drinking places (0.6% after -0.1%) - all recovered after May contractions (albeit gasoline may have been a little on the low side of expectations).
• That meant headline sales came in well above-expected at 0.6% M/M (0.1% consensus), with May unrevised at -0.9%. But ex-auto/gas impressed at 0.6% (0.3% expected, 0.1pp upward revision to May to 0.0%) and ex-auto 0.5% (0.3% expected, 0.1pp upward revision to May to -0.2%).
• In notable major categories, non-store retail grew robustly once more at 0.4% M/M (0.4% prior; has risen for 5 consecutive months), with clothing stores, miscellaneous store retailers (1.8%) and general merchandise stores (0.5%) seeing another month of growth, and food and beverage (0.5%) and health and personal care (0.5%) up after a contractionary May.
• Only two categories saw M/M declines: electronics and furniture stores both saw modest falls in sales (-0.1% after negative Mays).
• Overall retail sales have now recovered a significant part of the dip since March's tariff front-running surge, with Control Group and Ex-autos/gas setting new all-time highs (all in SA/nominal terms),