CHINA: June PMI Services Unexpectedly Falls

Jul-03 02:12

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* China's June CAIXIN PMI Services fell to its lowest since September 2024. * At +50.6 June's result...

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ASIA STOCKS: Flows Reverse for Taiwan and India

Jun-03 02:04

After an exceptional period of inflows into the major markets, it appears that this trend has stalled for now as constant daily flows are interrupted with outflows, with Taiwan and India the latest to experience a significant outflow.

  • South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$172m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$265m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,205. The 5-day average is +$53m, the 20-day average is +$53m and the 100-day average of -$112m.
  • Taiwan: Had outflows of -$1,885m as yesterday, with total outflows of -$2,332m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$12,778. The 5-day average is -$466m, the 20-day average of +$222m and the 100-day average of -$134m.
  • India: Had outflows of -$585m as of the 30th, with total inflows of +$50m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$10,528m.  The 5-day average is +$10m, the 20-day average of +$87m and the 100-day average of -$113m.
  • Indonesia: Had outflows of -$172m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$45m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$2,898m.  The 5-day average is -$9m, the 20-day average +$9m and the 100-day average -$31m.
  • Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$47m as of 29th, outflows totaling -$84m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,755m. The 5-day average is -$17m, the 20-day average of -$2m and the 100-day average of -$18m.
  • Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$107m as of the 30th, totaling -$240m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,424m. The 5-day average is -$56m, the 20-day average of +$8m and the 100-day average of -$24m.
  • Philippines: Saw inflows of +$8m yesterday, with net outflows of -$259m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$515m. The 5-day average is -$52m, the 20-day average of -$13m the 100-day average of -$5m.
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CHINA: CAIXIN PMI Unexpectedly Contracts

Jun-03 01:52
  • China's May CAIXIN PMI contracted in May, surprising forecasters.
  • May's result of +48.3 was materially down from +50.4 in March and a surprise to market survey's predicting a rise to +50.7
  • May's result was the worst since Q3 2022.  
  • Output fell sharply to +47.5 vis +51.6 in April for the lowest reading since late 2022 and new orders fell from the month prior.
  • The outcome reverses seven consecutive months of expansion and speaks to the uncertainty created from the US-China trade war.  

BOJ: Ueda- Baseline Scenario Could Change Significantly

Jun-03 01:49

BoJ Governor Ueda is in parliament, with headlines crossing currently. The governor is reiterating the trade uncertainties are extremely high and will remain so, even once tariff rates are settled. 

  • A few key headlines are outlined below via Rtrs: "BOJ GOV UEDA: HAVE SAID IN OUTLOOK REPORT THAT OUR BASELINE SCENARIO COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY - [RTRS]" "BOJ GOV UEDA: NO PRESET PLAN FOR RATE HIKES, WILL RAISE INTEREST RATES ONLY IF ECONOMY, PRICES TURN UP AGAIN, OUTLOOKS LIKELY TO BE REALISED - [RTRS]"
  • So the likely bias remains to raise rates further, but as Ueda notes the baseline scenario (particularly based off where tariff/external conditions end up) could change significantly.
  • On the bond buying program: "BOJ UEDA: WILL REVIEW BOND TAPER PLANS AT NEXT POLICY MEETING TAKING INTO ACCOUNT OPINIONS OF BOND MARKET PARTICIPANTS - [RTRS]"
  • Note that the next BoJ board meeting outcome due on June 17. Ueda reiterated that sharp moves in super long end yields could also influence the short end.  
  • Note as well Governor Ueda will speak later today at 4:50pm local time.