CHILE: July Retail Sales, IP, Copper Production, Unemployment Due
Aug-29 11:20
* Month-end activity data for July cross at 1400BST(0900ET), including retail sales, industrial pr...
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Trade Through The 20-Day EMA
Jul-30 11:14
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade above 128.84, the Jul 25 low. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. This key support remains intact for now. A hammer candle on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing on Monday signals a potential reversal. Initial resistance to watch is 129.92, the 20-day EMA. A break of the Jul 25 low is required to confirm a resumption of the bear trend.
- Gilt futures are rallying as the contract extends this week’s gains. Price has once again traded above the 20-day EMA, at 91.82 . A clear break of this average and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 1.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jul30 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jul-30 11:09
- EUR/USD: $1.1525(E765mln), $1.1550(E902mln), $1.1700-10(E1.1bln), $1.1800(E1.7bln)
- USD/JPY: Y147.50($878mln), Y148.25-30($989mln), Y148.65($945mln), Y149.00($853mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6550(A$1.0bln), $0.6600-10(A$1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3695-10($969mln), C$1.3770-75($1.7bln)
US TSYS: TYA Tests Resistance Ahead Of Important Docket
Jul-30 11:07
- Treasuries have recently firmed, helped by a contained bid in EGBs seemingly following German budget figures, modestly extending yesterday’s sizeable bull flattening.
- It’s ahead of a busy session that sees ADP employment, flash GDP estimates for Q2, Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement and then the FOMC (preview links below). President Trump will also make a final call on yesterday’s touted China tariff truce extension.
- Cash yields are 0.3-0.8bp lower on the day, with the long-end lagging declines. 10Y yields of 4.314% still target a test down to 4.30%.
- TYU5 has recently nudged up to a session high of 111-14+ (+ 03) having earlier kept to a narrow range of 111-09+ to 111-13, on modest cumulative volumes of 275k.
- It tests resistance at 111-14+ (Jul 22 high) after which lies 111-28 (Jul 3 high). To the downside, support is seen at 110-19+ (Jul 24 low).
- Data: ADP employment Jul (0815ET), GDP/PCE 2Q A (0830ET), Pending home sales Jun (1000ET)
- Fed Preview: FOMC decision 1400ET, presser 1430ET. https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jul2025_With_Analysts_002622ac0e.pdf
- QRA Preview: 0830ET. https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_US_Deep_Dive_Issuance_2025_07_Refunding_e2af296ce5.pdf
- Monday’s Treasury borrowing estimates were almost exactly in line with MNI's estimates. We would characterize the current quarter as slightly on the high side of the median analyst expectation, with the latter quarter fairly close to expectations given what is usually a wide range for the further-out quarter. It should have little to no impact on expectations for Wednesday's Refunding announcement.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump to make final call on a China tariff truce extension today. He also signs a Congressional Bill at 1330ET (closed press) and delivers remarks on Making Health Technology Great Again (1600ET)
