NORWAY: July Inflation Due On Monday: Not Expected To Shift Norges Expectations
Aug-08 12:53
Norwegian July inflation is due on Monday at 0700BST/0800CET. It is the last major macro datapoint before Norges Bank’s August 14 decision (next Thursday), but is not expected to shift firm expectations for a hold at 4.25%. Instead, the July report will add to the stock of data ahead of the September decision, where markets expect a 25bp to 4.00% to be delivered.
- Norges Bank projects CPI-ATE inflation to grow at a 3.1% Y/Y in each month through to September, with the June reading having come in line with expectations last month. Early Bloomberg consensus instead expects a 3.0% Y/Y CPI-ATE print in July.
- As has been the case through this year, food inflation adds a source of uncertainty to the July print. There is some uncertainty within the analyst previews we have seen as to whether annual inflation will tick up or down in July. Grocery prices have historically been adjusted twice a year (February and July), but this trend has broken down somewhat since the pandemic.
- Headline inflation is also expected at 3.0% Y/Y, slightly below Norges Bank’s 3.1% forecast. Analysts point to a downward contribution to the annual rate from electricity prices in July, though we note that the four forecasts submitted to Bloomberg have quite a wide range of 2.7% Y/Y to 3.3% Y/Y.
- See below for a selection of analyst comments ahead of the release:
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Punts Tariffs And Pivots On Ukraine
Jul-09 12:23
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Executive summary:
- President Donald Trump will hold a White House lunch today with the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal to discuss “commercial opportunities”.
- Markets have largely shrugged off Trump’s latest tariff ultimatum, likely assessing that major trade partners will strike preliminary agreements before the new August 1 deadline or receive another extension.
- Markets have been less sanguine about the prospect of a punitive new tariff on copper imports, designed to reshore copper production in the United States.
- South Korea is eyeing an in-person meeting between Trump and President Lee Jae-myung. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tokyo and Washington will "swiftly proceed with negotiations towards the newly set August 1 deadline".
- Trump told reporters yesterday he would "probably" tell the European Union within two days what tariff rate it can expect.
- Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, has emerged as the slight favourite to be nominated as the next Fed chair.
- Senate leaders are expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this afternoon as negotiators in Qatar struggle to make a breakthrough on a Gaza ceasefire.
- Trump is leaning closer to endorsing a new Russia sanctions package. The primary concern for the White House is how to calibrate secondary sanctions without dramatically increasing tensions with China and India.
- Poll of the Day: Very few Americans support reducing or eliminating funding for social services.
Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF
