PHILIPPINES: July Exports Surprise to the Upside

The ANZ survey showed little change in business confidence and the outlook in July with the former rising 1.5 points to 47.8 but the latter falling 0.3 to 40.6. It signals that the recovery continues but at a gradual pace. Inflation expectations were stable at 2.7% for the fourth consecutive month but up from February’s 2.5%. Other price/cost components eased, which should reassure the RBNZ ahead of the August 20 rate decision. 

• ANZ notes that most of the forward-looking components of the survey were little changed signalling that the economic recovery is unlikely to accelerate over Q3. Profits were steady around 17, employment rose 1 point to 11.8 (above 7 series average) and investment was stable around 20 (also above average). Exports were slightly higher at 14.6 after 13.9.

NZ ANZ business activity outlook vs confidence

• ANZ expects the RBNZ to become more concerned that medium-term inflation will be too low and as such there will be “more monetary easing than is currently envisaged”.
• Business pricing intentions moderated to 43.5 from 46.3, the lowest since December. Costs were also down at 75.9 after 79.0 but remain above the late 2024 low.
• Residential construction moderated to 16.7 from 44.8. 

NZ ANZ business price/cost components

Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG

• The PBOC issued CNY309bn of 7-day reverse repo at 1.4% during this morning's operations.
• Today's maturities CNY150.5bn
• Net liquidity injection CNY158.5bn.
• The PBOC monitors and maintains liquidity in the interbank system through the issuance of reverse repo.
• The CFETS Pledged Repo Deposit Institutions 7 Day Weighted is at 1.44%, from prior close of 1.56%.
• The China overnight interbank repo rate is at 1.34%, from the prior close of 1.30%.
• The China 7-day interbank repo rate is at 1.45%, from the prior close of 1.60%.

• CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY309 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO WEDS