JPY: JPY Wrap - GDP Sees A Test Of 145.00
The Asia- Pac range has been 144.97 - 145.72, Asia is currently trading around 145.35. USD/JPY has extended lower for most of our session on the back of some poor data before finding some buyers back towards the pivotal 145.00 area.
- Dow Jones via BBG – “Japan's economy shrank in the first quarter of 2025 for the first time in a year, and faces a bumpy road ahead due to the impact of U.S. trade policy.”
- “Japan's real gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in the January-March period from the previous quarter, preliminary government data showed Friday, putting the risk of a technical recession in play.”
- "It is likely inevitable that exports and domestic production will be significantly pushed down in the April-June quarter due to higher U.S. tariffs," Taro Saito, an economist at NLI Research Institute, said in a research note published ahead of Friday's release.
- “He expects the economy to contract again in the second quarter due to weakening exports and sluggish domestic demand.”
- "JAPAN AKAZAWA: GOVT HAS NO PLAN NOW TO COMPILE FRESH STIMULUS PACKAGE BUT WILL COORDINATE APPROPRIATELY WITH RULING COALITION - [RTRS]"
- *KATO: ALSO CONFIRMED WITH US FX SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY MARKET, PLANS TO TALK WITH BESSENT ON FX IN LINE WITH AGREEMENT" - BBG
- USD/JPY is consolidating after a powerful break higher, support is now around 145.00. Stocks had a positive close but it seems USD/JPY is taking its cues from US yields which have backed off from some pretty pivotal levels.
- The support around 144/145 looks important now, the price action though does not look great and the market is still more comfortable selling rallies.
MNI FX OPTIONS: Expiries for May16 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)USD/JPY: Y147.75($1.09bln), Y146.85($778.9bln), Y145.00($735.4bln)
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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GOLD: New Record as Tariff Headlines Continue.
- Gold finished where the US trading session left today, clawing back some of the falls from Monday as tariff uncertainty continues.
- Opening at $3,230.75, gold rallied during the day to reach $3,274.40 – another new record.
- Gold has reasserted its position above all major moving averages with the closest the 20-day EMA of 3,109.47
- South Africa's gold production fell 7.6% y/y in February versus +1.0% in January, according to Statistics South Africa.
- Gold Fields Ltd is preparing to comply with an order from the Ghanaian government to vacate one of its mines after the government rejected a lease extension. Gold Fields Ltd
- Authorities in Mali have closed Barrick Gold’s Head Office over a tax dispute.
FOREX: Antipodean Wrap - AUD & NZD Trading Steady As Gains Are Consolidated
Nvidia fell in after-hours trading as the company said the US government will begin requiring a license to export its H20 chips to China. This has seen stocks come under pressure for most of the Asian session and the USD giving back most of yesterday's gains. Another fix higher in USD/CNY at 7.2133 continues to point to the view that the PBOC is going to slowly manage the currency lower.
- AUD/USD - Asian range 0.6323 - 0.6362, AUD has traded sideways for most of the Asian session. The market will be watching for signs of exhaustion as move the higher finally stalls. Dips back to the 0.6250 area should find buyers once more.
- AUD/JPY - Asian range 90.32 - 91.05, AUD/JPY was under pressure from the open as risk came under pressure during the Asian session. Price goes into the London open around 90.40 having broken the overnight lows. Multiple attempts to get back above 91.50 have stalled and direction has been quick to turn as risk comes back under pressure.
- NZDUSD - Asian range 0.5886 - 0.5915, NZD has traded slightly bid for most of the session as the USD gives back yesterday's gains. Like the AUD, the market will be watching for signs of exhaustion and some reversion back to the mean. Expect buyers to return first around 0.5800/30, then 0.5730/60.
- AUD/NZD - Asian range 1.0729 - 1.0769, the cross has drifted lower in the Asian session back towards the overnight lows around 1.0730 area. The cross is going into London pretty directionless but rebounds will likely be capped as stale longs will use any bounce back to 1.0850 to lighten up. Tomorrow, we have the Australian employment print, along with NZ CPI.
Fig 1 : NZD/USD Spot Hourly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
NEW ZEALAND: While Q1 Headline Inflation Likely Up, Core May Return To Band
Q1 NZ CPI data print on Thursday and are expected to show a pickup in inflation from Q4 but still comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% band. Bloomberg consensus is at 0.8% q/q & 2.4% y/y, in line with the RBNZ’s February forecast but higher than Q4’s 0.5% q/q & 2.2% y/y. Both tradeables and non-tradeables are projected to post a stronger quarterly increase than in Q4.
- There is quite a range of forecasts amongst the 14 respondents in Bloomberg. Headline inflation ranges from 0.3% to 0.9% q/q and thus 1.9% to 2.5% y/y.
- The domestic banks are all close to consensus with Kiwibank and Westpac in line and ANZ, ASB and BNZ slightly higher at 0.9% q/q & 2.5% y/y.
- There are only 8 forecasts in Bloomberg for tradeables and non-tradeables but consensus is at 0.8% q/q. The RBNZ forecast 0.7% q/q and 0.9% q/q respectively.
- Tradeables projections on Bloomberg range from 0.4% to 1.0% q/q with Westpac forecasting 0.6%, Kiwibank 0.7%, ANZ 0.8% and BNZ 1.0%. Monthly price data showed that fuel and food prices rose in Q1.
- Non-tradeables are between 0.6% and 0.9% q/q with BNZ & Kiwibank at 0.8% and ANZ & Westpac 0.9%. This component is monitored closely as it is domestically driven and the annual rate should print at its lowest in around 4 years.
- The RBNZ will release its measure of underlying inflation from its sectoral factor model. It eased 0.2pp to 3.1% in Q4, still above the top of the band, but may drop inside it in Q1.
