FOREX: JPY Falters as BoJ Kick the Can on Rate Hikes
May-01 09:00
- A dovish turn from the BoJ board has contained the JPY, pressuring the currency against all others in G10 headed into the NY crossover. USD/JPY rallied comfortably through the Y144.00 handle to touch Y144.74 - thereby pressuring the next major topside level at 145.55 - the 50% retracement of the downleg posted off the late March high.
- Moves follow the BoJ not only stressing the uncertainty surrounding current monetary policy, but also cutting their growth outlook over the short- and medium-term as well as pushing back their forecast for when they will achieve their domestic price target. The dovish turn pressured BoJ rate hike pricing, with only 10bps now priced for the rest of the year.
- GBP/USD slipped across the Asia-Pac session, pressuring GBP/USD to a new weekly low at 1.3275 as the bearish tweezer top candle pattern formed on Monday & Tuesday played out. The rate appears to have bottomed out into the crossover, as the USD Index drifts off the overnight high.
- ISM Manufacturing data is the calendar highlight Thursday, and follows the lower-than-expected MNI Chicago PMI print yesterday. The Fed remain inside their pre-meeting media blackout, keeping central bank communications very light.
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MNI: EUROZONE FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.1%
Apr-01 09:00
- MNI: EUROZONE FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.1%
MNI: EUROZONE MAR FLASH HICP +2.2% Y/Y
Apr-01 09:00
- MNI: EUROZONE MAR FLASH HICP +2.2% Y/Y
- MNI: EUROZONE MAR FLASH CORE HICP +2.4% Y/Y
EUROZONE DATA: Unemployment Rate Surprises With A New Series Low
Apr-01 09:00
The Eurozone unemployment rate for February printed a tenth below consensus at 6.1% (sa, vs 6.2% consensus and prior) making it the new series low. This is after three consecutive months at 6.2%.
- The decline came despite the youth unemployment rate (for those under 25 years old) ticking up marginally to 14.2% in February (vs 14.1% in January). It’s a small uptick having dropped from a recent high closer to 15% in July and sees it a little above lows of 14% in early 2023.
- Survey indicators have been mixed. The EC's expected employment index fell in March to 96.7 (vs 97.4 prior), making it the lowest reading since February 2021. On the other hand, the Eurozone March flash PMI release noted that employment "stabilised" as "Eurozone companies brought an end to a period of job shedding".
Source: Eurostat
