FOREX: JPY Crosses - The JPY Still Struggles In The Crosses
US stocks outperformance is now widening out to the broader market and global risk sentiment remains very positive. The JPY underperformance against the GBP and potentially the EUR seems to be stalling for now, it continues to perform best against the CNH.
- EUR/JPY - Overnight range 168.46 - 169.52, Asia is trading around 169.45. Decent demand was seen around 168.50 overnight as the pair consolidated some of its recent gains. First support is back towards the 167.50 area, a break back above 170.00 is needed to reengage the upward momentum.
- GBP/JPY - Overnight range 196.29 - 197.55, Asia trades around 197.30. Good demand seen towards the support around 196.00, the pair could look to consolidate as we look toward NFP Thursday. The pair remains in an uptrend and dips should be supported for now.
- NZD/JPY - Overnight range 87.22 - 87.67, Asia is currently dealing 87.55. NZD/JPY continues to trade sideways as it consolidates, a sustained break above 88.00 is needed for the market to turn its focus back to the 90.00 area. The longer this cross stalls up here the greater the chance of it turning back towards the 96.00 area.
- CNH/JPY - Overnight range 19.9368 - 20.0750 Asia is currently trading around 20.0475. A big reversal from the 20.50/20.60 resistance area. In the middle of its recent range awaiting clearer direction with a bias to sell rallies.
Fig 1 : GBP/JPY Hourly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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INDONESIA: Weak Demand Weighs On Manufacturing, More Optimistic About Future
Indonesia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in May but improved slightly from April at 47.4 from 46.7. Weak demand, the sharpest drop in new orders in almost 4 years, drove a reduction in production and purchasing. However, S&P Global note that there is optimism around the outlook with a pickup in hiring and higher business confidence.
- Businesses are discounting to attract buyers resulting in the slowest increase in selling prices in eight months. Producers prefer to reduce margins rather than increase prices as input costs rose strongly in May driven by raw materials. This is another sign that inflation is well contained and if the rupiah continues to appreciate, BI could ease further after its May rate cut.
- New orders posted their second straight contraction and May was at a faster pace. Exports also fell with businesses noting less demand from the US.
- The ASEAN aggregate is released on June 4 but of the data released today only the Philippines posted above the breakeven 50-mark and only just at 50.1 down from 53.0, as recent global trade developments appear to be weighing on the region’s manufacturers.
S&P Global manufacturing PMI sa
FOREX: JPY Crosses - Consolidating Recent Gains, Looking To Build On them
US stocks traded heavily on Friday night likely aided by month-end rebalancing as funds sold Equities and bought bonds. The JPY consolidated some of last weeks gains in the crosses on Friday night as it looks to build on these moves.
- EUR/JPY - Friday night range 162.81 - 163.84, Asia is trading around 163.20. EUR/JPY continues to be capped on any move back towards 165.00. Looks like a 161 - 165 range for now.
- GBP/JPY - Friday night range 193.41 - 194.66, Asia trades around 193.65. Last week saw the move higher capped above 196.00 again. A sustained break sub 191.50 is needed to turn the focus back to the lows, until then it looks to be 192.00 - 196.00.
- NZD/JPY - Friday night range 85.45 - 86.17, Asia is currently dealing 86.15. The pair is trading sideways in a 84.00 - 87.50 range for now. No clear direction but there is an inclination for the market to want to express a long JPY.
CNH/JPY - Friday night range 19.9114 - 20.0438, Asia is currently trading around 19.9100. CNY/JPY doesn’t seem to like it back above 20.00, can it begin to build for a move lower again, a move back below 19.7000 would turn the focus back towards 19.00.
Fig 1 : GBP/JPY Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
CHINA: Details of 3 and 6 month Reverse Repo Sales in June
- The PBOC sold CNY400bn of 3-month outright reverse repo in May.
- The PBOC sold CNY300bn of 6-month outright reverse repo in May.
- There will be CNY900bn of outright reverse repo maturities in May.
