BRAZIL: JP Morgan Still Sees Copom On Hold Until December
Jul-25 13:28
- JP Morgan expects the BCB to deliver on its guidance of an interruption of the cycle at the Copom meeting next week and keep the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00%. With very few public appearances recently, it seems that BCB board members are comfortable with the high-for-long message that has prevailed in recent communication.
- While the escalating tensions and expected increase on tariffs on Brazilian exports to the US may contribute to Brazil's economic slowdown, JPM assumes that the board will prefer to highlight the uncertainty over the eventual second-round effects of this potential shock rather than draw conclusions at this point.
- The BCB will likely emphasise its vigilance and perseverance in maintaining high rates until the disinflation process is firmly established. The rest of the outlook characterisation should remain broadly unchanged, although the BCB may discuss the impact of tariffs, a topic likely to be addressed in the subsequent meeting minutes.
- JPM continues to expect the BCB to keep rates at 15% at the next three meetings, starting a cutting cycle in December with an initial 25bp cut, followed by back-to-back 50bp cuts until the Selic rate reaches 10.75% by the end of next year.
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EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
Jun-25 13:26
- SPX: 6,111.8 (+0.3%).
- DJIA: 43,130 (+0.1%/+41pts).
- NDX: 22,316.5 (+0.6%).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Northbound
Jun-25 13:22
- RES 4: 6249.00 High Feb 21
- RES 3: 6200.00 1.50 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6172.50 High Feb 24
- RES 1: 6157.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6147.00 @ 07:25 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 5959.00/5922.67 Low Jun 23 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
- SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Sights are on the 6200.00 handle, a Fibonacci projection. Key support remains at the 50-day EMA - at 5922.67. A clear break of it would signal a reversal.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: European Officials Look at the Impact of Spain's NATO Policies
Jun-25 13:07
- European officials look at the impact of Spain's NATO policies on its standing within the EU -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
