PERU: JP Morgan Say Fundamental Drivers Support FX, But Remain MW PEN
Aug-06 10:56
JP Morgan say fundamental drivers remain supportive for FX, but they remain on the sidelines given valuations.
- They note that PEN has benefitted from improving fundamentals on the balance-of-payments side, with robust terms of trade helping drive the strongest current account since before the GFC.
- Moreover, these tailwinds are expected to continue: JP Morgan forecasts the price of copper to remain in the 9,000-9,600 USD/mt range through 2026, the price of gold to continue climbing, and the price of oil to remain subdued in the 50-60 USD/bbl range ahead. These price dynamics should continue to support currency strength for metal-exporting, oil-importing Peru.
- However, PEN has already appreciated materially, with the currency ranking amongst the top performers of EM in recent months. Considering the size of this recent rally, with USDPEN around five-year lows, JP Morgan remain MW PEN in their GBI-EM model portfolio.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In WTI Remains Present
Jul-07 10:53
- On the commodity front, Gold is trading lower today. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note that the latest recovery highlights a possible false trendline break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Recent gains appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.84. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
EQUITIES: Large Commerzbank Rolling Put
Jul-07 10:45
CBK (19/06/26) 12p vs (18/06/27) 20p, bought the 2027 for 2.92 in 40k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
Jul-07 10:43
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend and note too that corrections, when they do occur, have been shallow. This reinforces the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1630, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Support to watch is 1.3602, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3462. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position - this suggests the M/T uptrend remains intact.
- USDJPY has started the week on a firmer note. Price has breached the 50-day EMA, at 144.91, and a close above it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would expose 146.19, the Jun 24 high. For now, gains still appear corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, signalling a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support.
