FINANCIALS: JP Morgan (JPM) - Q1 25 Earnings Headlines

A very active Option markets across the Board in early trade.

• ERM5 97.87/98.00/98.12c fly, sold at 2 in 37k total.

• Treasuries have pared earlier gains to broadly consolidate yesterday’s sell-off, with a move continuing later in the session on partial tariff reprieve.
• Focus is firmly on the February CPI report but there is also potential spillover from the BoC decision, almost fully expected to cut 25bp but, again from a spillover angle, likely risks from any dovish surprises.
• It’s followed by 10Y supply after last month’s auction saw a 1bp tail but some better details on take-up distribution.
• Cash yields are within +/- 0.5bps of yesterday’s close.  
• 2s10s at 33.5bp (-0.4bp) is still towards the higher end of the past month’s range.
• TYM5 at 110-28+ (+ 01+) holds close to yesterday’s low of 110-25+, on more modest cumulative volumes of 310k after some heavy overnight sessions recently.
• Support is seen at 110-12+ (Mar 6 low) before 110-00 (Feb 7 high) but the trend structure is still bullish. Yesterday’s high of 111-25 pierced resistance to open 112-021 (Mar 4 high) and 112-02 (Fibo projection).
• Data: CPI Feb (0830ET), Federal budget balance Feb (1400ET)
• Coupon issuance: US Tsy to sell $39bn 10Y Note reopen - 91282CMM0 (1300ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $60bn 17-W bills (1130ET)

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 12-Mar 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (20.4%, --)
• 12-Mar 0830 CPI MoM (0.5%, 0.3%), YoY (3.0%, 2.9%)
• 12-Mar 0830 CPI Index NSA (317.671, 319.268)
• 12-Mar 0830 CPI Core Index SA (324.739, 325.713)
• 12-Mar 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (0.9% rev, --)
• 12-Mar 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
• 12-Mar 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note reopen (91282CMM0)
• 12-Mar 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$128.6B, -$308.0B)