EM ASIA CREDIT: Jollibee Worldwide (JFCPM): Possible Highlands Coffee IPO

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6698 - 0.6713 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around {AUDUSD Curncy}. The AUD has poked its head above 0.6700 in Asia as the USD headwinds were added to in our session by South Korea pushing back on one-way USD strength very much in the same vein as Japan. The AUD price action remains constructive as the pair looks to build the momentum to try and break above the 0.6700 area. Technically while the AUD remains above 0.6500-0.6550 dips should continue to be supported. On the day, focus will be around the attempt to break and hold above 0.6700, the AUD does look a little stretched short-term but with risk powering ahead and liquidity not what it would normally be a move higher is possible. I would prefer to fade dips again with the first support on the day 0.6645-0.6665.

• (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar climbed to its strongest in more than a year after traders ratchet expectations the Reserve Bank will quickly shift to raising interest rates early next year.
• (Bloomberg) -- “South Korea’s won strengthened after the authorities said excessive weakness in the currency isn’t desirable and foreign-exchange markets will soon see the government’s “strong determination.”  {NSN T7R48GT96OSN <GO>}
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6700(360m Dec29) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 41 Points

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• China's bond futures are marginally lower today after yet another liquidity withdrawal by the PBOC during this morning's OMO.  
• December has seen withdrawals for a second month by the PBOC with markets volatility relatively low.  
• The 10-Yr bond future is flat today at 108.20 and remains at the mid point between the 200-day EMA of 108.30 as topside resistance and downside resistance from the 100-day EMA of 108.09.
• The 2-Yr bond future is down -.01 today at 102.51 and remains above all major moving averages. Below is the 200-day EMA of 102.49.
• Cash remains steady with the 2-Yr at 1.358%.  The 2-Yr has traded in a tight range of 1.35-1.45% over the last month.  
• The 10-Yr is at 1.83%, marginally lower in yield today.  The 10-Yr has traded in a 1.81-1.85% range over the last month.  

Bitcoin had a range overnight of $86,550.09k - $88,302.00k, Asia is currently trading around {XBTUSD Curncy}. Bitcoin continues to consolidate below the $90k area but has not been able to participate in the melt-up in risk seen in stocks and precious metals. For the time being the downward pressure seems to have been alleviated, though technically it remains in a downward trend. We are at the bottom end of its recent $84k-$96k range, and while it remains in a downtrend any bounce back toward the $95-$100k area looks likely to be faded initially. We are sitting just above the first support in the $84k-$86k area which has proved to solid recently, a break below here and the market will turn its focus back toward the $70k-$75k support which is the very well known line in the sand for the huge Bitcoin "treasury" company Strategy. 

• It looks as though some big expiries roll off this week, perhaps that can allow the market more freedom to move again.
• Bitcoin Archive on X: “$23.6 BILLION Bitcoin options to expire Friday. Calls are clustered at $100,000 and $120,000. Puts are concentrated around $85,000. Max Pain is $96,000. One of the biggest Bitcoin options expiry events of all time.” See Graph Below
• Bitcoin’s Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: $3,230 

Fig 1: Bitcoin Open Option Interest

Source: MNI - Market News/@BitcoinArchive