EM ASIA CREDIT: Jollibee Worldwide: 3Q results released

• RES 4: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5727.18 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 5700.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5689.00 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 5633.00 @ 06:42 BST Oct 15
• SUP 1: 5497.00 Low Oct 14  
• SUP 2: 5481.41 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 5423.00 Low Sep 25  
• SUP 4: 5366.00 Low Sep 17     

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, the direction is up and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. A key support zone between 5553.01 - 5481.41, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs, remains intact. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger is 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

"*NORWAY TO SPEND 2.8% OF WEALTH FUND IN 2026 BUDGET, DN REPORTS" Bloomberg

That would be in line with Norges Bank expectations (and also a couple of the sellside estimates we had seen ahead of today's release)

The Norwegian 2026 budget proposal will be released today. Most market-relevant information will be released at 0700BST/0800CET, with the full budget presented at 0900BST.

• At 0700BST, the following “key figures” for 2026 will be released:
  1. Non-oil and structural non-oil deficit spending in NOK.
  2. Structural non-oil deficit spending as a % of Government pension fund assets (fiscal rule stipulates maximum spending of 3% of the GPFG).
  3. Structural non-oil deficit as a % of mainland GDP.
  4. Fiscal impulse (defined as the change in 3. relative to 2025)
  5. Summary of updated Govt’ macroeconomic forecasts.
• At 0900BST, the full budget will be presented, including details of polices and a full breakdown of fiscal figures (which analysts use to estimate Norges Bank FX transactions for the year ahead).
• In the September MPR, Norges Bank projected the structural non-oil deficit spending at 2.8% of the GPFG (vs 2.7% in 2025). Deviations from this forecast will feed into subsequent rate path projections.
• Note that support to Ukraine (which doesn’t provide an impulse to mainland activity) is included in the Government’s fiscal rule.
• The budget proposal will also inform analysts’ NGB issuance expectations for next year.
• Following today's proposals, the Government will negotiate with supporting Parties to finalise the budget by December. PM Store’s Labour party won the election in September, but relies on support from the Centre, Socialist Left, Green and Red Parties to have a majority in the Storting. Reliance on these smaller and mostly left-leaning parties will factor into budget discussions, with areas such as wealth taxes and welfare spending in focus.