EM LATAM CREDIT: Joint Bid Terminated

Dec-04 12:16

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Nov-04 12:15

USDCAD (+0.18%) is rising for the fourth consecutive session, propelling the pair to its highest level since April 10, above 1.4080. Recent price action has been highlighting a reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. A recent doji candle on Oct 29 signalled a short-term reversal, providing an additional bullish impulse to the underlying uptrend.
Today’s breach of the bull trigger places the next focus on 1.4111, the April 10 high and 1.4167, the 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg.
The noted risk pessimism will be weighing on the Canadian dollar today, however, today’s Federal Budget remains an additional key risk; Citi see a "significantly more expansionary than previous" annual budget - and they see markets putting particular importance on the estimated budget deficit for the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years.
They see these estimates being even wider than suggested during the election campaign, with some forecasts as high as C$100bln (reflecting weaker growth and reduced tax revenues, not solely increased spending). They conclude that the composition of new spending will be important for growth and any BoC reaction.
Separately, Canada will release jobs data for October on Friday, with analysts citing the focus on the unemployment rate, where further increases from the current 7.1% could fuel dovish bets.

Nov-04 11:54

Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
11/04 $800M Breakwater Energy 5NC2 9%a
11/04 $500M #Sharjah Islamic Bank5Y Sukuk +95a
11/04 $Benchmark Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 7Y 6.375%a
11/04 $Benchmark Lao People's Democratic Rep 5Y 11.25%a
11/04 $Benchmark Standard Chartered Perp NC10 7.375%
11/04 $Benchmark QBE Insurance 12NC7 +170a
$40.7B Priced Monday, driven by Alphabet's $17.5B over 8 tranches and Novartis $6B over 7 tranches:
- 11/03 $17.5B *Alphabet: $1B 3Y +30, $500M 3Y SOFR+52, $2.5B +5Y +40, $1.25B 7Y +50, $3.5B 10Y +62, $2B 20Y +72, $4B 30Y +82, $2.75B 50Y +107 (massive debt issuance includes $6.5B over 6 tranches: 3Y, 6Y, 7Y, 13Y, 19Y and 39Y).

Nov-04 11:53

On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged. A fresh cycle low last week highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3864.7. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
WTI futures remain in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.

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