US: Johnson Falls Short Of Votes Required To Win First Speaker Ballot

Jan-03 18:35

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is short of the votes required for re-election as Speaker of the House of Representatives after three conservative Republican House reps voted against his candidacy in an ongoing roll call to open the 119th Congress. Assuming the handful of conservatives who declined to participate in the roll call cast their vote at the end of the ballot, the House will either engage immediately in another round of voting or recess temporarily.

  • Although the election is set to go to multiple ballots, as it did during two speaker elections in 2023, the opposition to Johnson's candidacy appears less robust than the opposition to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R) candidacy. Lawmakers will likely remain in Washington throughout the weekend, if the election isn't settled today, to ensure that a speaker in in place on January 6 to facilitate the certification of the presidential election result.
  • Shortly before the vote, Johnson published a statement on X promising, "an end to the status quo, and a return to fiscal sanity," noting that the national debt "is a grave threat to America’s economic and national security..."
  • The 'commitments' appear designed to address concerns raised by conservative lawmakers who threatened to withhold their vote from Johnson.
  • Johnson said, if re-elected Speaker, he would commit to, "Creat[ing] a working group comprised of independent experts – not corrupted by lobbyists and special interests – to work with [Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency DOGE] and our committees on implementing recommended government and spending reforms to protect the American taxpayer," and "Task that working group with reviewing existing audits of federal agencies and entities created by Congress – and issuing a report to my office for public release."

Historical bullets

MNI EXCLUSIVE: ISM Services Head On The Outlook

Dec-04 18:31

MNI spoke with the head of the ISM services index about the outlook. On MNI Main Policy Wire now, see sales@marketnews.com for details.

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

Dec-04 18:30
  • RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg  
  • RES 2: 1.2849 50-day EMA 
  • RES 1: 1.2718/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 29
  • PRICE: 1.2709 @ 17:02 GMT Dec 4 
  • SUP 1: 1.2567/2487 Low Nov 27 / 22 and the bear trigger   
  • SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
  • SUP 3. 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend 
  • SUP 4: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 and a key support     

Recent gains in GBPUSD are considered corrective and the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 1.2718, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The medium-term trend direction is down, with moving average studies in a bear-mode set-up. The bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.   

CROSS ASSET: Tsys, Equities Touch Session Highs On Oil Fade

Dec-04 18:18

A notable drop in oil prices (Brent -70 cents about 20 minutes ago in short order) appears to be underpinning equities and Treasuries to session highs. 10Y US TIPS-implied breakevens have dipped to session lows a touch through 2.30%, down 3bp from the day's (and 7-session) highs. Some color on the oil move from our Commodities team:

  • Crude prices have dipped further on the day, although no clear headline drivers are visible at present.
  • WTI JAN 25 down 1.6% at 68.81$/bbl
  • The market remains sensitive to any chatter ahead of OPEC+’s meeting Dec. 5 where the bloc is expected to delay its unwinding of voluntary cuts until the end of Q1.
  • Any indication that cuts may go ahead as planned, or even a smaller than expected delay, could add pressure to prices.