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BONDS: Europe Pi: Longs And Shorts At Extremes Elsewhere (2/2)

Jul-07 18:09

Elsewhere in MNI Europe Pi:

  • OAT has reverted to flat from a brief stint in "long" structural positioning in our last update. The most recent week's trade was indicative of short setting. 
  • Gilt structural positioning has moved to its shortest level of the year - in sharp contrast to two months earlier when it was "very long". Shorts were set last week.   
  • BTP remains in "very long" territory and indeed has extended that slightly since our last update. Trade indicative of short cover was seen last week.    
     
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Updated Jul 7, 2025 based on OI/price data through Jul 4, 2025. MNI Pi provides an estimate of fast money positioning in futures. Calculations are for guidance only, and are not trade recommendations in any way. Source: Eurex, ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI Calculations

BONDS: Europe Pi: Twist Steepening An Apparent Theme In Germany (1/2)

Jul-07 18:04

From our latest Europe Pi positioning indicator (PDF here):

  • If there is a theme in German contracts' structural positioning, it's twist steepening.
  • After being "short" in our last biweekly update, Schatz has reverted to "long", where it was most of April/May.
  • Conversely, Bund has moved to "very short" from "short", and Buxl has moved to "short" from "flat".
  • Bobl is the only non-mover, remaining flat. Longs were set across all four contracts last week.
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Updated Jul 7, 2025 based on OI/price data through Jul 4, 2025. MNI Pi provides an estimate of fast money positioning in futures. Calculations are for guidance only, and are not trade recommendations in any way. Source: Eurex, ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI Calculations

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Still Intact

Jul-07 18:00
  • RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing 
  • RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
  • RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14 
  • RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
  • PRICE: 0.8610 @ 15:49 BST Jul 7
  • SUP 1: 0.8603 Low Jul 7 
  • SUP 2: 0.8550/8503 20- and 50-day EMA values 
  • SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
  • SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4

The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8541, the 20-day EMA.