US: Jobs Report Appears To Resonate w/Voters - Morning Consult
Morning Consult notes: “Economic buzz worsens: Friday’s disappointing jobs report, with major downward revisions to the data from May and June, appears to be resonating with Americans. By a 21-point margin, voters were more likely to say they’d heard something negative than positive about the economy in the past week — the largest gap since June.”
- Morning Consult adds: “Similarly, Friday’s jobs report appears to be undermining Americans’ trust in the president's stewardship of the economy. Voters are now 6 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, his worst numbers since April.”
- Semafor reports: “Growth and inflation in the country have largely weathered its unpredictable tariffs and economic policies, but essential costs on housing, health care, and education are making up an ever-bigger share of household spending, credit card debt is at an all-time high, and even some higher earners are falling behind on their loan payments.”
Figure 1: US Consumer Confidence
Source: Semafor, Conference Board
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BONDS: Europe Pi: Longs And Shorts At Extremes Elsewhere (2/2)
Elsewhere in MNI Europe Pi:
- OAT has reverted to flat from a brief stint in "long" structural positioning in our last update. The most recent week's trade was indicative of short setting.
- Gilt structural positioning has moved to its shortest level of the year - in sharp contrast to two months earlier when it was "very long". Shorts were set last week.
- BTP remains in "very long" territory and indeed has extended that slightly since our last update. Trade indicative of short cover was seen last week.
BONDS: Europe Pi: Twist Steepening An Apparent Theme In Germany (1/2)
From our latest Europe Pi positioning indicator (PDF here):
- If there is a theme in German contracts' structural positioning, it's twist steepening.
- After being "short" in our last biweekly update, Schatz has reverted to "long", where it was most of April/May.
- Conversely, Bund has moved to "very short" from "short", and Buxl has moved to "short" from "flat".
- Bobl is the only non-mover, remaining flat. Longs were set across all four contracts last week.
EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Still Intact
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
- PRICE: 0.8610 @ 15:49 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 0.8603 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 0.8550/8503 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8541, the 20-day EMA.
