US DATA: Jobless Claims Surprise Lower, Including Payrolls Ref Week For Initial

The latest weekly jobless claims report was better than expected for both initial and continuing claims, extending improvements in initial claims (and this time for a payrolls reference period) whilst continuing claims stabilize rather than extend what had been a sharp rise back in June. It broadly continues to chime with a 'low firing, low hiring' labor market.

• Initial jobless claims: 221k (sa, cons 233k) in the week to Jul 12 – a payrolls reference period – after a marginally upward revised 228k (initial 227k).
• It sets up a more favorable comparison with last month’s payrolls report, with the 221k vs 246k a month ago for back more in keeping with the 226k in May and 216k in April.
• It’s a fifth consecutive weekly decline for the weekly rate whilst the four-week average also continues to trend lower with 230k after 236k the week prior and 246k a month ago at what was its highest since Aug 2023.
• Continuing claims: 1956k (sa, cons 1965k) in the week to Jul 5 after a downward revised 1954k (initial 1965k).
• It extends some stabilization in continuing claims after what had been a swift climb to a new 3+ year high of 1964k in mid-June.
• The claims rate remains at a well-centered 1.3%, with 1.28% for three weeks now, having tipped into 1.3% territory back in mid-May for the first time since Dec 2021.
• Non-seasonally adjusted levels tell a familiar story: initial claims are within non-pandemic ranges for the time of year, and of some note now a little below the 2024 level, whilst continuing claims are right at the top of the ‘normal’ ranges.