US DATA: Jobless Claims Data Don’t Rock The Boat

The latest weekly jobless claims data point to another small dip in initial claims even if the four-week average remains elevated whilst continuing claims unsurprisingly held at highs since late 2021. It continues to broadly point to a ‘low firing, low hiring’ labor market with the pace of deterioration slowing a touch compared to recent weeks.  

• Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 233k (sa, cons 241k) in the week to Jun 28 after a marginally upward revised 237k, marking a third consecutive decline.
• The four-week average eased lower to 242k, a second weekly decline having recently peaked at 246k at what had been the highest since Aug 2023, although it’s still elevated by recent standards.
• Continuing claims meanwhile were as expected at 1964k (sa, cons 1962k) in the week to Jun 21 after a slightly downward revised 1964k (initial 1974k).
• In non-seasonally adjusted terms, initial claims remain within typical ranges for the time of year whilst continuing claims are right at the top end.