BONDS: JGB Rally & Schnabel Lend Support To EGBs & Gilts
Core global FI markets have drawn support from dovish EUR STIR repricing following late Monday comments from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel and spillover from a bid in JGBs.
- Schnabel told a FAZ podcast that "at the moment, no interest rate increase is to be expected in the foreseeable future... I didn’t say that interest rates should be raised...but rather that they shouldn’t be lowered again. That’s a very important distinction" (per Bloomberg).
- Markets price ~5bp of ECB tightening through ’26 vs. ~6.5bp early yesterday.
- Bund futures +47 at 127.43.
- Initial resistance at 127.24 is pierced, with bulls looking to break the Dec 19 high (127.52) and close Friday’s opening gap low (127.55). Ultimately, they need to break the 20-day EMA (127.91) to start to threaten the bearish trend. First support is 126.75.
- German yields 0.5-4.0bp lower. 10s further below 2.90%, 30s back below 3.50%. Curve flattens after 2s10s registered the highest close since September yesterday.
- EGB spreads to Bunds flat to 1.5bp tighter, peripheral paper & OATs outperform on the dovish STIR move.
- 70bp remains the key level to watch in both BTP/Bund & OAT/Bund spreads.
- Gilts look to global cues, futures +28 at 90.98.
- Support at 90.50 wasn’t tested during yesterday’s downtick.
- To the upside, resistance comes in at the 20-day EMA (91.17) followed by a cluster of highs (91.78 & 91.93).
- UK yields 1.5-3.0 bp lower, curve leans flatter. 2s10s ~2bp away from the November high (79.52bp) after threatening a break above yesterday.
- Little of note on the EU & UK calendar pre-Christmas, with focus on U.S. macro inputs today.
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RATINGS: Moody's Upgrades Italy To Baa2 From Baa3, Still A Notch Below Others
The Moody's upgrade to Italy's credit rating announced late Friday was the first from the agency since 2002 but shouldn't be considered a major surprise. Among the 3 major ratings agencies, Moody's had the lowest rating on Italy - by two notches (Fitch and S&P both BBB+).
- So this upgrade to Baa2 from Baa3 represents something of a closing of that gap rather than a major breakthrough for Italy.
- From the release:
- "The rating upgrade reflects a consistent track-record of political and policy stability which enhances the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms and investment implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). It also points to prospects of further policy actions supporting growth and fiscal consolidation beyond the plan's deadline in August 2026. As a result, we expect that Italy's high government debt burden will gradually decline from 2027 onwards."
FED: Heading Into Its Final Weeks, QT Pace Remains At $20B/Month (2/2)
On the asset side of the Fed balance sheet, we saw a $25B drop in assets, of which just $2B could be attributed to QT in one of its final weeks (ends Dec 1).
- Instead it was a $6B drop in dealer repo operations vs a week earlier, and $17B in "other" areas that aren't related directly to monetary policy and typically don't have any significant impact on the size of the balance sheet (such changes are largely due to items such as bank premises, accrued interest, and other accounts receivable.)
- Discount window takeup edged up $0.3B to $6.1B but remains relatively low.
- QT has totaled just under $21B over the last month, around the expected pace, though as noted this will flatline in December with a pickup in net bills as MBS proceeds are rolled over into T-bills.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI & Claims Headline Thanksgiving Week
A Thanksgiving-condensed week sees data highlights from delayed retail sales and PPI reports for September on Tuesday (Nov 25) before a Wednesday release for weekly jobless claims (Nov 26). Aside, the Fed’s Beige Book should also offer another important update on Wednesday for latest liaison reporting, with no Fedspeak currently scheduled around the holiday and the FOMC media blackout due to start on Saturday, Nov 29.
- As we regularly comment in this weekly publication, Redbook and Chicago Fed CARTS indicators point to solid nominal growth in retail sales, something broadly reflected in analyst consensus for the release.
- PPI inflation will offer a useful albeit not overly timely update on input cost pressures.
- Jobless claims will be watched particularly closely, both for latest initial claims for signs of layoffs and a notable update for continuing claims. The latter covers the payrolls reference period for November and will be an important reference point for FOMC members trying to get a sense of latest unemployment rate clues with the next payrolls reports coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC decision (going into it with this week’s 0.12bp rise to 4.44% back in September).
