TARIFFS: Japan Tariff "Deal" Rates May Not Be Reflected In Executive Order

The latest 6 tariff rates have been announced by President Trump on Truth Social - we've now received all of the total 12 that were expected to be announced this afternoon, in addition to the South Korea and Japan rates that had been announced earlier in the day.

• Reminder that the White House is expected to send more tariff "letters" in the coming days regarding the rates to be set as of August 1, with the major expected "exception" being the EU which Reuters reported earlier is still trying to reach an agreement with the US.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: 30% tariff (original reciprocal tariff was 36%)
• Indonesia: 32% (original was 32% so no change)
• Bangladesh: 35% (original was 37%)
• Serbia: 35% (original was 37%)
• Cambodia: 36% (original was 49%)
• Thailand: 36% (original was 36% so no change)

To recap from earlier: 

• Japan: 25% (original was 24%)
• South Korea: 25% (original was 25% so no change)
• Tunisia: 25% (original was 28%)
• Malaysia: 25% (original was 24%)
• Kazakhstan: 25% (original was 27%)
• South Africa: 30% (original was 31%)
• Laos: 40% (original was 48%)
• Myanmar: 40% (original was 45%)

US President Trump on Truth Social announces 25% tariffs on Tunisia (the original reciprocal tariff had been 28%). Could be some more announcements coming, that's now 6 of the supposed 12 due today (apart from SKorea and Japan) that have now been announced.

• Separately, Reuters reports that South Korea has issued a statement saying it will attempt to accelerate trade negotiations ahead of the Aug 1 deadline: "SOUTH KOREA SAYS IT WILL STEP UP TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE U.S. TO WIN MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL RESULTS AND CLEAR UP UNCERTAINTIES CAUSED BY TARIFFS - STATEMENT"

The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) fell to 0.00 in June from 0.30 in May (upward rev from an initial reading of 0.19). That means the index is zero standard deviations from the index’s historical average - so very much in normal territory despite an uptick in container prices in May amid apparent US tariff front-loading.

• The GSCPI was a closely-watched measure during the pandemic as supply chains were impaired amid strong goods demand, pushing goods inflation sharply higher through 2021-22. See charts.
• There doesn't appear to be anywhere near the same sustained pressure now, despite signs in various indicators (including slower manufacturing ISM delivery times) that would suggest incipient price pressures working their way through.
• While the imposition of tariffs will have an upside impact on prices, those aren't reflected in import price indices. Meanwhile the steady GSCPI suggests US core goods prices, while higher, don't look like they will be pushed up further by global supply chain issues in the near-term.