SPAIN DATA: Jan Manuf PMI Notably Weaker Than Consensus, Price Rises Noted

Feb-03 08:21

The Spanish manufacturing PMI was notably weaker than consensus at 50.9 (vs 53.5 cons, 53.3 prior). While still in expansionary territory for the 12th consecutive month, this was the lowest reading since August. 

  • Uncertainty weighed on demand, especially in export markets, while there was an uptick in input cost and output charge inflation.
  • Note that Eurozone flash PMI did note that the pace of growth in the region ex-France and Germany did slow from December.

Highlights from the release:

  • “Although demand was reported to have remained positive, some panellists noted a degree of uncertainty amongst clients. This was especially evident in export markets, with foreign sales rising only marginally since December”.
  • “Whilst some panellists reported stronger demand from North Africa, there were reports of weaker sales to key European and Latin American markets.”
  • “Reflective of slower output and order book gains, panellists reduced their purchasing and employment growth in January”
  • “Input price inflation picked up noticeably”… “Inputs like steel were said to have risen in price, whilst higher transport expenses added to cost burdens”.
  • “Firms chose to raise their own output charges quite markedly in January, and therefore signalled a return to rising factory gate prices following four months of decline”.
spain_pmi

Historical bullets

JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower

Jan-03 23:45
  • RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
  • RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)  
  • RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6 
  • PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
  • SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
  • SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
  • SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing   

Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont). 

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend

Jan-03 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
  • PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3 
  • SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20  
  • SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17 
  • SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

Jan-03 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
  • RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA               
  • RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18   
  • RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3 
  • SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31 
  • SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
  • SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
  • SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.