Australia household spend for Jan was a little weaker than forecast. The m/m print rose 0.3%m/m versus 0.4% forecast, while the Dec outcome was to a -0.5% fall (after originally reported as a -0.4% decline). This saw the y/y outcome print at 4.6%, versus 5.1% forecast and 5.0% prior. This comes after yesterday's national accounts, which showed some slowing in household consumption growth. The chart below plots this measure in y/y terms (orange line), versus today's update household spending print for Jan (in y/y terms, the white line). Spending appears to be moderating but from reasonable levels. The RBA is unlikely to be concerned and it may not prevent another rate hike, given still elevated inflation pressures and a tight labour market.
Fig 1: Australia Household Spend Y/Y (White Line) & Consumption Growth Y/Y

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed by around 11–21bps across meetings since the release of December’s stronger-than-expected labour market data on 22 January.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-Jobs

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
The BBDXY range overnight was 1187.02 - 1193.19, Asia is currently trading around 1190. Risk has had an impressive turnaround thanks to a very strong US ISM Man PMI. What's interesting about the USD price action is that recently this type of price action would have seen the USD give back most of its recent gains, but it continues to hold above 1190, near its highs for now, is this telling us something or is it just lagging? I suspect that bounces will continue to find sellers in the short-term as the USD still has few friends. On the day, the first resistance remains in the 1190-1195 area and then more importantly back towards 1200 where I suspect sellers would return in earnest.
Fig 1: US Economic Surprise Vs USD

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P/@themarketear
There has been a cumulative near $6bn in offshore outflows from South Korean and Taiwan equities over the past two trading sessions (last Friday and yesterday). This has pushed South Korea back into year to date outflows for 2026, while Taiwan is only modestly positive over the same time frame. The risk off kicked off with the Warsh announcement as nominated Fed Chair, while the collapse in metal prices sparked broader risk aversion. This may have contributed to selling pressure in markets like South Korea and Taiwan which have benefited from the tech/AI led global equity rally. Sentiment stabilized overnight in US and EU markets (aided by better US ISM data), while metals are rebounding in the first part of Tuesday trade. The Kospi has re-opened strongly, last around 4.4% higher, to near 5170, but this under recent cycle highs from end Jan.
Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2026 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | -1451 | -2689 | -1008 |
| Taiwan (USDmn) | -1398 | -832 | 411 |
| India (USDmn)* | 207 | 301 | -3260 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | 39 | -831 | -550 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | -9 | 40 | 131 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | -32 | -64 | 259 |
| Philippines (USDmn) | 5 | 132 | 231 |
| Total (USDmn) | -2639 | -3941 | -3786 |
| * Data Up To Jan 30 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI