FED: Jackson Hole: Schedule Out At 8pm ET (1/3)
This year’s Jackson Hole symposium theme is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." The full Jackson Hole schedule will be released this evening (Thursday) at 2000ET (0100UK time early Friday morning), which will include the various academic paper presentations. The full Symposium website is here (which will include links to papers, livestreams, and schedule): https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/
- The focus as always will be the keynote speech by the Fed Chair, with Powell speaking at 1000ET Friday Aug 22 on the "Economic Outlook and Framework Review".
- There will be the usual FOMC President TV interviews on the sidelines. We've had a couple earlier today in KC's Schmid and Cleveland's Hammack; Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee will give TV interviews starting around 5:45pm ET today, with Boston's Collins on BBG TV at 9am tomorrow, with others very likely.
- MNI will update clients on additions to the schedule via our IB and Bullets services.
- Several senior central bankers also will be in attendance. In addition to Powell's speech, we will hear from other central bank policymakers, including BoE Gov Bailey and ECB President Lagarde on the same panel (1225ET/1725UK Sat).
- The BOJ’s Ueda will be in attendance (though no official speaking slot is known, if any). Swedish Riksbank’s Theeden is also confirmed to be attending (he told MNI that “central bank independence”, geopolitics, and trade wars could be key themes along with the official labor market dynamic topic).
- However, not all attendees will be presenting / giving media appearances.
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TARIFFS: US Pres Trump: Deal With Philippines Includes 19% Tariff
Pres Trump on Truth Social announces terms of a trade pact with the Philippines including a 19% import tariff (was 17% on "Liberation Day"):
- @realDonaldTrump "President Ferdinand Marcos, of the Philippines, is just leaving the White House, with all of his many Representatives. It was a beautiful visit, and we concluded our Trade Deal, whereby The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs. The Philippines will pay a 19% Tariff. In addition, we will work together Militarily. It was a Great Honor to be with the President. He is Highly Respected in his Country, as he should be. He is also a very good, and tough, negotiator. We extend our warmest regards to the wonderful people of The Philippines!"
GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3620 High Jul 10
- RES 1: 1.3517 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3485 @ 15:46 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16 and the short-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. For now, short-term gains appear corrective and a bear threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support currently at 1.3480 - drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach strengthens a bear theme, exposing 1.3335 next, the May 20 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3517, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential base.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B General Electric 2Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 07/22 $2B #General Electric $1B 5Y +47, $1B +10Y +62
- 07/22 $Benchmark NY Life 3Y +40, 3Y SOFR+66
- 07/22 $1.5B #Wells Fargo 2031-tap +72
- Expected Wednesday:
- 07/23 $Benchmark JFM (Japan Finance Org for Munis) 5Y SOFR+68a
