FED: Jackson Hole: Analysts Mixed On Explicit Powell Cut Signal (2/2)

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.6545 @ 16:01 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 0.6455 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish. Support around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6492, has been breached, however, the pair has found support just below the average. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension initially towards 0.6435, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6595, clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.      

President Trump says on Truth Social that the US-Indonesia Trade deal is complete - he'd previously announced this deal last week, including the 19% tariff rate (was 32% on "Liberation Day")

@realDonaldTrump: ""It is my Great Honor to announce our Trade Agreement with the Republic of Indonesia, as represented by their Highly Respected President, Prabowo Subianto. It is agreed that Indonesia will be Open Market to American Industrial and Tech Products, and Agricultural Goods, by eliminating 99% of their Tariff Barriers. The United States of America will now sell American Made products to Indonesia at a Tariff Rate of ZERO, while Indonesia will pay 19% on all of their products coming into the U.S.A. — The Best Market in the World! In addition, Indonesia will supply the United States with their precious Critical Minerals, as well as sign BIG Deals, worth Tens of Billions of Dollars, to purchase Boeing Aircraft, American Farm products, and American Energy. This Deal is a HUGE WIN for our Automakers, Tech Companies, Workers, Farmers, Ranchers, and Manufacturers. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

• Goldman Sachs write that "incoming data have been broadly consistent with the June ECB staff projections for resilient growth and further disinflation. That said, the ongoing trade tensions pose significant downside risks to the staff forecasts.”
• They there expect rates to be unchanged along with "limited shifts in communication" at this week's meeting ahead of the decision on Thursday.
• "In particular, the Governing Council is likely to note that the incoming data confirm the June projections and that it maintains its data-dependent policy approach.”
• “We expect President Lagarde to reiterate in the press conference that policy is in a good place but that the Council is ready to respond to changes in the economic outlook, emphasising the importance of the incoming data and trade policy developments.”
• “We maintain our forecast for a final cut to 1.75% in September given the re-intensification of EU-US trade frictions, our forecast for weak near-term growth (at home and abroad) and subdued inflation. While the ECB might hold rates at 2% if a favourable trade agreement is reached, we would expect further cuts beyond 1.75% under a 30% tariff rate than in our baseline.”