BRENT TECHS: (J5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $75.88 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: $75.52/74.15 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29
Brent futures are in consolidation mode and continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $75.52 (pierced). The latest pullback is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A clear breach of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.
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BUNDS: A very busy Week ahead
- A fairly decent overnight session for Bund on the Volume front, and Yields on both sides of the Atlantic are staying elevated, although still short of the December high for the US 10yr.
- The German Bund future has seen a gap lower on the overnight Open, and the big focus will be on the 132.00 support initially.
- The Opening gap is up to 132.50, and a clear break through that area, would open back to 133.10.
- It is a very busy Week ahead, European CPIs, and US Labour Data are due.
- European supply will also be watched, as it is a heavy start for the Year.
- For Today, Services PMIs will be final readings for France, Germany, EU, UK, US. The German CPI, US Factory Orders and final Durables good are the notable data for Today's session.
- SUPPLY: US Sells $58bn of 3yr Notes.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Cook.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 120.45/120.79 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.39 @ Close Jan 3
- SUP 1: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 2: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.51 Low Nov 8
- SUP 4: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and Friday’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.79, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Recent Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 166.51 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 163.32 High Jan 2
- PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 160.91 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11
EURJPY has pulled back from the Dec 30 high, however, the move down appears corrective - for now. A bullish short-term condition remains intact and the next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance.
