UK: ITV Revises Exit Poll, Labour Majority Projected Up To 178
With seats beginning to come through thick and fast in the UK general election, ITV has revised its projections following the initial exit poll. It predicts the centre-left Labour party will win an even greater majority than initially predicted, increased from 170 to 178. This is just one short of the majority won by Tony Blair's Labour in 1997.
- ITV's revised projection: Labour 414 (+4 from exit poll), Cons 130 (-1), Lib Dem 60 (-1), Reform 10 (-3), SNP 11 (+1)
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AUSSIE BONDS: Remains Richer But Less So After Q1 GDP Data & RBA Bullock’s Testimony
ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +8.0) are richer on the day but 1-3bps cheaper after the release of Q1 GDP data. GDP rose 0.1% q/q (estimate +0.2%) in 1Q versus a revised +0.3% in 4Q. GDP rose 1.1% y/y (estimate +1.2%) versus revised +1.6% in 4Q.
- (ABS) "Domestic final demand was subdued this quarter, growing 0.2 per cent. The rise in imports of goods and services was offset by an increase in exports and change in inventories."
- In her Senate testimony earlier today, RBA Governor Bullock remained neutral and reiterated the Board’s stance of not “ruling anything or out” and that policy is “restrictive”. She said that if inflation turns out stickier than expected then the central bank won’t hesitate to raise rates while a lot weaker economy would lead them to ease.
- When asked about the budget Bullock didn’t comment on whether it was expansionary or not. She doesn’t expect that the energy rebate will impact core inflation or the RBA’s CPI forecasts materially.
- Cash ACGBs are 6-8bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -11bps.
- Swap rates are 6-8bps lower on the day.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +7.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer after the data. 9bps of easing is priced by year-end.
CHINA PRESS: China Hopes Spain Can Promote EU Opening
Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao hopes Madrid can encourage the EU to maintain a rational and open attitude in the field of green new energy, in comments made to Spanish counterparts recently. The minister stressed EU concerns over excess capacity and market distortions stemmed from “excess anxiety” and a “distorted mentality”. China will continue enhancing trade with Spain and promote two-way investment, Wang added. (Source: Yicai)
CHINA PRESS: SOEs Should Not Engage In High-Risk Financial Investments
China’s SOEs need to ensure financial investments focus on their main business and refrain from high-risk financial dealings, according to Zhu Changming, head of the SOE Reform Centre. Following a government meeting on highlighting SOE core functions, Zhu said SOEs financial investments should serve as long term capital and cultivate new quality productivity and strengthen strategic emerging industries. (Source: Yicai)
