BRAZIL: Itaú Trims 2025 IPCA Forecast, Still Sees First Selic Rate Cut In Q126
Aug-21 18:56
- In their latest macro scenario, Itaú continues to expect the Copom to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 15% until the end of the year, initiating a modest monetary easing cycle in Q1 2026, bringing the Selic rate to 12.75%.
- They believe that risks still lean towards an even later rate cut than their current view. However, they acknowledge that a significant currency appreciation or a sharper economic slowdown – possibly due to a smaller impact from the new private payroll-deductible loan programme, for example – could bring the rate cut forward to this year.
- Overall, economic activity is slowing due to a contractionary monetary policy and a smaller fiscal impulse compared to recent years. Itaú have maintained their 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, with a slight downside bias, and 1.5% for 2026.
- On inflation, they have once again reduced their 2025 IPCA forecast from 5.2% to 5.1%, due to the stronger exchange rate, which should impact food prices, and they continue to see the risks as skewed to the downside. For 2026, they maintain their 4.4% forecast.
- They also keep their primary fiscal balance projections unchanged at -0.6% of GDP for 2025 and -0.9% for 2026. The challenge for next year remains significant and the 2026 budget will likely require an adjustment of 0.5% of GDP to ensure compliance with the target.
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Chip Makers & Media Stocks Lead Gainers
Jul-22 18:48
- Stocks remain mixed late Tuesday, S&P eminis back near steady vs. weaker Nasdaq index. Currently, the DJIA trades up 142.22 points (0.32%) at 44464.55, S&P E-Minis up 2.5 points (0.04%) at 6347.25, Nasdaq down 65.1 points (-0.3%) at 20909.01.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sector stocks continued to lead the late session declines, semiconductor makers weighing on IT: KLA Corp -4.66%, Lam Research -3.74%, Micron Technology -3.71%, Broadcom Inc -3.33%, Dell Technologies -3.21% and Super Micro Computer -3.03%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communications sector: Netflix -2.82%, Meta Platforms -1.21%, TKO Group Holdings -1.06% and Take-Two Interactive Software -0.86%.
- On the positive side, Health Care and Homebuilding sectors led gainers by midday: IQVIA Holdings surged 18.6% higher on strong earnings, Charles River Laboratories +8.49%, Quest Diagnostics +6.40%, Moderna +5.13%, Thermo Fisher Scientific +4.65% and Bio-Techne +4.48%.
- Also on strong earnings: DR Horton +15.93%, PulteGroup +10.68%, NVR Inc +7.37% and Lennar Corp +8.29%. Other leaders included Northrop Grumman +9.15%, Enphase Energy +7.00% and Albemarle +6.73%..
- Earnings expected after today's close: Lockheed Martin Corp, Capital One Financial Corp, Texas Instruments Inc, EQT Corp, CoStar Group Inc, Intuitive Surgical Inc, Enphase Energy Inc, Pegasystems Inc, Range Resources Corp and Baker Hughes Co.
COMMODITIES: Crude Falls, Gold And Copper Extend Gains
Jul-22 18:35
- Crude futures continue to drift towards the low end of the trading range seen through much of July. US trade demands and potential retaliation from trading partners continue to weigh on pricing.
- WTI Aug 25 is down by 1.3% at $66.3/bbl.
- With trade negotiations continuing, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will meet Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for a third round of talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions, potentially to include Beijing’s purchases of oil from Russia and Iran.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact, with support to watch at $65.76, the 50-day EMA. This average has been pierced, and a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has risen by 1.0% to $3,430/oz, building on yesterday’s solid 1.4% rally to take the yellow metal to its highest level since June 16.
- Today’s gains come on the back of further weakness in the US dollar, assisted by an extension lower in US yields, after Bessent provided a more optimistic tone regarding Powell’s short-term future as Fed Chair.
- The move widens the gap with prior resistance at $3,395.1, the June 23 high, which was pierced yesterday, signalling scope for a push towards $3,451.3, the June 16 high.
- Elsewhere, copper has also rallied by 1.4% to $572/lb, its highest level since July 9.
- The move narrows the gap to resistance at $589.55, the July 8 high. Clearance of this level would open $600.00.
USDJPY TECHS: Correction Extends
Jul-22 18:30
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.18 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 146.47 @ 15:47 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 146.33 Low Jul 22
- SUP 2: 145.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 144.23 Low Jul 7
- SUP 4: 142.68 Low Jul 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback - a correction. Recent strength has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, short-term pivot support to monitor is 145.85, the 50-day EMA.
