CHILE: Itaú Expects Longer BCCh Easing Cycle To Resume In Q3
Apr-23 15:39
- In their latest macro scenario update, Itaú anticipates a longer easing cycle, now expecting rates to end this year at 4.5% and to reach 4% by early next year, 50bp below their previous forecasts. They expect the easing cycle to resume in Q3 2025 and believe that the balance of risks tilts towards an even larger cycle.
- The recent surge in global uncertainty has tarnished the economic outlook and Itaú says that even if trade tensions dissipate, domestic private sentiment, investment, and activity dynamics are likely to suffer. For now, they have reduced their GDP growth forecasts for this year and next by 10bp and 20bp to 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively.
- This incorporates a somewhat faster disinflation path, supported by lower energy prices and activity. They have revised their year-end CPI forecast down by 10bp to 4% and anticipate inflation to be a tick below the 3% target next year.
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