NATGAS: Israel's Leviathan to Supply 130bcm of Gas to Egypt Through 2040

Aug-07 09:23

Israel's Leviathan field has agreed to supply gas worth up to $35bn to Egypt, according to Israel’s NewMed Energy.

  • Leviathan will sell about 130 bcm of gas to Egypt through 2040, or until contract quantities are fulfilled. Supply will start at 20 bcm from H1 2026 with the remaining 110 bcm once an expansion project is completed. Expansion includes the construction of a new transmission pipeline from Israel to Egypt via Nitzana.
  • The field off Israel's Mediterranean coast has reserves of around 600 bcm.
  • An existing deal, signed in 2019 for 60 bcm,, or 4.5 bcm per year, is expected to be fully supplied by the early 2030s.
  • Egypt became a net gas importer last year, switching from an LNG exporter, due to declining domestic gas production and rising cooling demand. Egypt has seen rolling blackouts over the last two years as government finances are under strain.
  • Egypt imported 16 LNG cargoes in July and more than double the previous rate of 5-6 cargoes per month seen since mid-2024, according to ICIS, with two additional FSRU import facilities starting last month.

Historical bullets

FOREX: Tariff Letter Frenzy Caps USD/JPY Rally

Jul-08 09:23
  • Trump's tariff letter-writing caught markets yesterday, prompting losses for equities and a negative close on Wall Street. Equity futures are yet to reverse, but are off the worst levels of the week headed into the crossover. The tariff headlines yesterday put paid to the USD/JPY rally that seems to have run out of steam into NY hours. That said, price remains in close proximity to 146.45, the weekly high and level above which the corrective move higher could resume. Through here, markets eye 148.03 for direction ahead of the Y149.73 200-dma.
  • Triggers for a return higher in USD/JPY would be a re-widening of front-end US-Japan yield spreads or a corrective rally for the USD Index - which appears to be building a base at the recent pullback low of 96.377. While tariff uncertainties remain present, another likely delay to the installation of reciprocal tariffs to early August is keeping the USD downside argument intact, despite further warning signs over the pace of USD weakness this year - most recently via a PBOC survey issued to domestic banks earlier in the week.
  • JPY is the poorest performer on the day, while AUD is the strongest. The RBA rate decision pushed back against building consensus for another rate cut by holding policy. AUD/USD trades back above 0.6500 as a result, and keeps the 50-dma support intact on any further downside.
  • Following the data rush last week, there are no tier 1 releases due from the US Tuesday, although the NY Fed's latest survey on one-year inflation expectations could see some attention, expected to slow to 3.13% from 3.20%. The speaker schedule is similarly light, with just ECB's Nagel at 1500BST/1000ET.

JPY: The Exchange traded put Option is still trading

Jul-08 09:20

Early FX Exchange traded Option, New Position, looking for Yen strength, still trading in a few clips.

While there's more of a two way flow, the aggressor has been the seller all Morning.

  • JPYUSD (8th Aug) 63.00p, sold at 0.25 in ~3.9k total now.

US TSY FLOWS: The US 10yr is pushing above 4.40%

Jul-08 09:16

The US 10yr Yield is pushing above the 4.40% level, taking its cue from the sell off in European Bond Futures.
In Yield terms:

  • 4.45% = 110.18+.
  • 4.50% = 110.08.