NATGAS: Israel Approves $35bn Gas Deal with Egypt

• Treasuries extended highs after another lower weekly ADP data release, draws some selling on highs. Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +9.5 at 112-30 vs. 113-00 high, 10Y yield 4.0922% (-.0464), curves mildly steeper (2s10s +.589 at 53.223; 5s30s +3.204 at 103.862).
• Treasuries continue to trade below resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A break would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10+, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support also lies at 112-06.
• USD briefly trades a new daily low on the weekly ADP print, however momentum was already headed lower into the print - and markets have since stabilised. USDJPY continues to fade off the earlier cycle highs at 155.44, putting the rate back to flat on the day.
• Next up: Weekly Redbook retail sales (0855ET), NAHB housing index Nov & Factory orders Aug (post-shutdown catch-up) at 1000ET.

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• At 11:00 ET 16:00 GMT, President Donald Trump will greet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman at the White House for his first Washington visit since 2018. The pair will hold a bilateral meeting at 11:45 ET 16:45 GMT. The White House pool is expected to be invited into the room for questions at the top of the bilat.
• MBS's visit is expected to include a raft of agreements to deepen ties in defence, tech, and energy. The trip is not expected to come with a pledge by Riyadh to join the Abraham Accords.
• The US and India appear to be edging closer to a trade deal, with positive comments from Indian trade officials and the announcement of an LNG deal to shrink the trade deficit.
• China has resumed US soybean purchases.
• CBO Director Phillip Swagel will provide testimony to the House Budget Committee.
• The House of Representatives will vote today on a bill forcing the DOJ to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein.
• Trump reiterated a threat against Indiana Republicans if they vote against redistricting.
• Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said Trump endorsed a Senate vote on his punitive Russia sanctions legislation. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will join talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tomorrow aimed at restarting negotiations with Russia.
• The UN Security Council adopted a resolution supporting Trump's Gaza peace plan.
• Poll of the Day: Pessimism about the country’s future has risen in US cities. 

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

"*BOE'S PILL: THERE IS EASING IN THE LABOR MARKET
*BOE'S PILL: LOOKING FORWARD, INFLATION IS SET TO COME DOWN
*BOE'S PILL: UNDERLYING DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG AS HEADLINE CPI" Bloomberg

• These comments not unexpected despite Pill being one of the hawkish camp on the MPC. Until recently he's often been saying the direction for Bank Rate should be lower, but that the risks suggested a slower than quarterly pace of cuts.
• Nothing in these comments suggests he will vote for a December cut, he's still not needed to if Bailey supports a cut anyway. And by the time that he is comfortable risks aren't to the upside, the wider MPC may have already cut rates, changing the equation again as we approach neutral.