US OUTLOOK/OPINION: ISM Manufacturing Preview: Prices Paid Set To Rise (2/2)

For ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, expectations are for a slight pickup to 65.0 from 64.8 prior. This looks to be on the low side versus the recent increase in regional Fed input prices indices: after a near 5-point pullback in July, we wouldn't be surprised by a rebound back toward the high 60s mark. 

• Admittedly the regional Fed data was mixed: Philly and Dallas Fed gauges pushed to multi-month highs, though KC and Empire moderated slightly. Our gauge below doesn't include the Richmond Fed which uses a different metric: a 12-month % chg lookback, which leaped to a 28-month high in the month.
• Additionally, the S&P Global flash PMI report noted that in August "the manufacturing cost rise was especially large, being the second-steepest since August 2022", suggesting a resumption of upside price pressures.