EM CEEMEA CREDIT: ISBANK - Q325 Headlines

Swiss September CPI is scheduled for release tomorrow, October 2, 07:30 BST / 08:30 CEST, with consensus for a marginal acceleration in the headline Y/Y rate to 0.3% (0.2% August). Core CPI meanwhile is seen to remain unchanged at 0.7% Y/Y this time.

• A consensus reading would keep inflation within the SNB's defined target of price stability, and bring the average Q3 print to around 0.2%, in line with the SNB forecast for the quarter from last week. Market pricing remains for a mere 10bps of easing being priced through the June 2026 meeting, and it seems that substantial downside momentum in Swiss CPI would be needed to materially shift these expectations into a dovish direction. For a review of Thursday's SNB meeting, see here.
• Assuming such downside momentum unexpectedly should materialize at tomorrow's print, apart from headline inflation, focus should specifically be on domestic and services CPI, categories which the SNB historically seemed to look at when judging for underlying inflationary pressures. See chart / table below for recent figures.
• For tomorrow's release, UBS sees headline at "0.25% y/y, indicating upside risk to our rounded estimate of 0.2% y/y. At the component level, we expect our definition of core inflation (headline excluding energy and food) to edge up 0.1pp to 0.8% y/y largely due to a rebound in services related to transportation and package holidays, which were weaker than we anticipated in August. Outside of core, we expect energy inflation to rise 1.6pp to -6.1% y/y, while food inflation is expected to edge down 0.1pp to -0.6% y/y. Looking ahead, we forecast inflation to pick up in Q4 to an average of 0.4% y/y."

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The Supreme Court files a notice in "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF U.S., ET AL. V. COOK, LISA D." that Gov Cook will be allowed to stay in her position (and not "fired" by the White House) until at least an oral argument on the case is heard in January 2026: "The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026. The Clerk is directed to establish a briefing schedule for amici curiae and any supplemental briefs responding to amici."