EM LATAM CREDIT: IRSA; 2035 USD180mn Bond Tap Priced

What federal government data will the Fed have by its Dec 9-10 meeting?

• The Fed should have the September and October Employment Report data in hand, though the latter could be truncated as noted above. The November report looks likely to come out just after the Fed meeting.
• Inflation is a different story. September CPI of course has been published, and the September PCE data should be in line to be produced by the BEA but with a lag – in 2013 it released the September data on Nov 8.
• That will probably be the last piece of major inflation data before the Fed meeting.
• As noted above, the October CPI report may not be released at all. The November data was scheduled to be released on the morning of the FOMC decision but that looks extremely unlikely now.
• Q3 advance GDP should be in hand, as should September/October retail sales as well as the latest weekly jobless claims.
• Of course there is plenty of "alternative" data with which to make a decision - in our PDF report, we go through various indicators across inflation, employment, and economic activity available to policymakers.

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6661 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6537/0.6618 50-day EMA / High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6525 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

Despite Monday’s recovery - a correction - a bearish short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA undermines a bullish theme. This has exposed the next key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. Key resistance and a short-term bull trigger is at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high. Initial resistance to monitor is at 0.6537, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish case.       

How delayed will (X or Y) data release be?

• To answer this question we could simply count the number of working days between 2013’s scheduled release and the eventual actual postponed release, and apply the same delay to the 2025 releases.
• That methodology could apply to some of the September reports for which data has been collected and calculations take little time to complete. However, other data points will take much longer to compile.
• To give two examples: in 2013, the BLS was due to publish Producer Price data for September on Friday Oct 11. They didn’t release it until Oct 29 (recall the shutdown was over on Oct 17), suggesting that it took a fairly long time to put the prior month’s data together. Conversely for the Census Bureau’s durable goods orders / inventories / shipments advance report for September, it was originally due out on Oct 25 and was published on that day with no delay.
• There are other complications including the major Thanksgiving holiday at the end of the month, which could both curtail survey efforts as well as the time required for agencies to compile the data.
• We are going through the methodologies used for each of the major releases and will provide more detail on how this could delay or postpone releases. For now we will go through the “Tier 1” releases that we have already missed.

Will we see any “doubled up” reports?

• In 2013, we didn’t see any “doubled up” releases from the BLS when the data flow restarted.
• By this we mean, the BLS schedule did not for example make any simultaneous August + September or September + October releases. For example in 2013, August JOLTS was due out on Oct 8, rescheduled to Oct 24, with the September JOLTS postponed from Nov 8 to Nov 22.
• Additionally there were no “doubled up” releases in terms of posting multiple different data sets at the same time: September nonfarm payrolls were released Oct 22, import/export prices Oct 23, and JOLTS Oct 24.
• We take from this experience that the BLS will aim to take its time and not try to release multiple major reports at once.
• The BEA only had 3 major postponed releases in 2013 and none required “doubling up”.
• However, the Census Bureau released multiple months’ worth of indicators at once in some instances: most notable was New Residential Construction data (housing starts/permits/completions) for which September, October, and November data were released simultaneously in December after multiple postponements. We wouldn’t be surprised to see similar this time.