OIL: Iranian Crude Relabelled as Indonesian as Malaysia Imports to China Dip
Nov-21 12:02
Iranian barrels are being relabelled as Indonesian oil with crude trans-shipped amid greater scrutiny of cargoes originating from Malaysia, Reuters sources said. China's crude imports from Indonesia far exceed Indonesia's total oil exports this year.
- China hasn’t officially imported Iranian oil since mid-2022 with imports typically assumed to deliver via the transshipment hub of Malaysia.
- China's imports from Malaysia have almost halved since July but are still showing as greater than the domestic production.
- China's crude imports from Indonesia have risen from less than 100k tons in 2024 to 9.81m tons, or nearly 236kb/d, year to date, according to customs data.
- Indonesian customs data shows just 1.7m tons of crude exported between Jan and Sep, of which only about 25k tons was sent to China.
- "Some banks are rejecting documentations showing Malaysia as origin," a trader said and Malaysia is more tightly enforce rules targeting illegal STS transfers.
- Over 51m tons of the 57m tons of Iranian oil imported by China in Jan-Oct was moved via STS, Kpler shows.
Source: Bloomberg / China Customs Data
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PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Moving Back Towards Asia-Pac Lows
Oct-22 12:02
Spot gold is moving back towards Asia-Pac lows of $4,004.3, currently -2.4% at $4,026.0 and building on yesterday’s sharp unwind. Interaction with the 20-day EMA, which was pierced overnight, remains key.
- For now, the pullback from last Friday’s high is considered corrective. If spot is able to consolidate back above the 20-day EMA, it may set the stage for a fresh extension higher.
- Note that this week’s selloff has allowed an overbought condition (on a 14-day RSI basis) to unwind.
- However, a clear breach of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement, with next support at $3,944.9 (Oct 9 low).
- Other precious metals are also a little softer today, but to a much lesser extent than yesterday’s session.
- Silver -2.0% at $47.7
- Platinum -0.8% at $1,534.5
- Palladium -0.4% at 1,410.4
US TSYS: Extending Highs, Tops Tuesday's Levels
Oct-22 11:55
- Treasury futures have climbed out of a narrow overnight range in the last few minutes, extending highs with 10s topping Tuesday's levels. No obvious headline or Block driver.
- At the moment, TYZ5 trades 113-27 (+3) vs. 113-29 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont) and the next key resistance
- 10Y yield 3.9378% (-.0249). Next support in Yield comes at 3.90% which Equates to 104.04+ Today. The April low of ~3.85% (3.8564%) and lowest level since October Equates to 104.14.
- Data limited to earlier MBA Mortgage Applications (reported -0.3%), Tsys auction $69B 17W bills at 1130ET, $13B 20Y Note re-open (91210UN6) at 1300ET.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Extends
Oct-22 11:29
- In the FI space, short-term resistance in Bund futures remains intact for now. The trend outlook is bullish following recent strong impulsive gains and sights are on the next key resistance at 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.30, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and today’s gap higher strengthens the bullish condition. The contract is through its recent high of 93.17, the Oct 17 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 93.95 next, a 1.500 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. A key support to watch lies at 91.65, the 20-day EMA. Initial support lies at 93.17, the Oct 17 high.
