ENERGY SECURITY: Iran-US Talks Conclude in Muscat

FX Exchange traded Option, covers the next 3rd Feb RBA meeting. Looking for further AUD Strength.

• AUDUSD (6th Feb) 68.5c, bought for 0.22 in 1k.

The underlying contract trades at 67.355, same as the spot.

• Noted on the Open that Data permitting, the AUDUSD chart looks interesting from here with the next immediate resistance in the Spot coming at 0.6799.
• A continuation through the latter would open to 0.6942 (2024 high and highest since Feb 2023).

After a brief pause post-ADP, Treasury futures continue to extend highs

• Currently, TYH6 trades 112-22 (+11.5)  session high - puts it back to best level since Dec 31
• Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
• Curves bull flattening: 2s10s -3.106 at 67.673, 5s30s -1.832 at 113.181.
• Bbg US$ index eases slightly: BBDXY at 1205.52 +.17.

Precious metals have pulled back today, with Gold down almost 1.2%, silver down 4% and platinum/palladium each over 5% lower. However, all four metals are still comfortably higher versus a week ago, with our technical analyst emphasising that trend conditions in gold and silver remain bullish.

• Geopolitical tensions stemming from US/Venezuela developments have provided a tailwind to precious metals this week, but medium/longer term bullish themes across the space  also remain in play. Note that we’ve also seen strong performance from industrial metals since the turn of the year.
• Spot gold is currently $4,440/oz. Initial resistance and the bull trigger is the Dec 26 all-time high of $4,550.
• CFTC positioning data is now back up to date. In the week to Dec 30, net non-commercial Gold longs were 48% of OI, down from a local high of 52% at the start of December. A 52-week Z score of this metric suggests positioning was not especially stretched heading into 2026, with the Dec 29 selloff likely prompting a degree of long covering.
• Meanwhile, spot silver has eased to $77.9, shy of the $84 all-time high. It’s notable that silver ETFs saw a combined ~200 tons of outflows on Monday and Tuesday, despite spot rising over 10% across those sessions.