ENERGY SECURITY: Iran-US Talks Conclude in Muscat
Feb-06 13:37
Iranian news agencies Mehr News and Tasnim report that the indirect talks between the US and Iran in Oman on Friday have ended for the time being.
- So far on Friday (Feb. 6), there has been little in the way of insight into any progress. Oil markets await any signs of diplomacy continuing or falling apart and risking escalations.
- Steve Witkoff is said to still be consulting with the Omani Foreign Minister
- The oil market will wait for any comment from the US side that could give an indication of progress on the key points, namely Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes. Progress will help bring down the risk premium, while a lack of progress raises the risk of conflict.
- Iran has stressed it only wants to negotiate on the former, which could prove a sticking point for the US, particularly as the missile programme is seen as a direct threat to Israel and wider US assets in the region. On the Iranian side, it sees limiting the missile programme as a key deterrent from future attack.
- Reuters have also reported that it is unsure when negotiations may restart.
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AUD: Looking for AUD Strength via Option
Jan-07 13:34
FX Exchange traded Option, covers the next 3rd Feb RBA meeting. Looking for further AUD Strength.
- AUDUSD (6th Feb) 68.5c, bought for 0.22 in 1k.
The underlying contract trades at 67.355, same as the spot.
- Noted on the Open that Data permitting, the AUDUSD chart looks interesting from here with the next immediate resistance in the Spot coming at 0.6799.
- A continuation through the latter would open to 0.6942 (2024 high and highest since Feb 2023).
US TSYS: Extending Highs
Jan-07 13:32
After a brief pause post-ADP, Treasury futures continue to extend highs
- Currently, TYH6 trades 112-22 (+11.5) session high - puts it back to best level since Dec 31
- Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
- Curves bull flattening: 2s10s -3.106 at 67.673, 5s30s -1.832 at 113.181.
- Bbg US$ index eases slightly: BBDXY at 1205.52 +.17.
PRECIOUS METALS: Bullish Themes Still Intact Despite Intraday Pullback
Jan-07 13:29
Precious metals have pulled back today, with Gold down almost 1.2%, silver down 4% and platinum/palladium each over 5% lower. However, all four metals are still comfortably higher versus a week ago, with our technical analyst emphasising that trend conditions in gold and silver remain bullish.
- Geopolitical tensions stemming from US/Venezuela developments have provided a tailwind to precious metals this week, but medium/longer term bullish themes across the space also remain in play. Note that we’ve also seen strong performance from industrial metals since the turn of the year.
- Spot gold is currently $4,440/oz. Initial resistance and the bull trigger is the Dec 26 all-time high of $4,550.
- CFTC positioning data is now back up to date. In the week to Dec 30, net non-commercial Gold longs were 48% of OI, down from a local high of 52% at the start of December. A 52-week Z score of this metric suggests positioning was not especially stretched heading into 2026, with the Dec 29 selloff likely prompting a degree of long covering.
- Meanwhile, spot silver has eased to $77.9, shy of the $84 all-time high. It’s notable that silver ETFs saw a combined ~200 tons of outflows on Monday and Tuesday, despite spot rising over 10% across those sessions.
