MIDEAST: Iran & Israel Accuse On Another Over Ceasefire Breaches
Both Israel and Iran are accusing one another of breaches of the fragile ceasefire between the two countries. Amichai Stein at Israel's i24 reports an Israeli official saying, regarding any potential response against supposed Iranian breaches, "The Americans are with us—they know Iran has violated the ceasefire". Iran has claimed that Israel carried out three waves of strikes on Iran up until 09:00 local time, after the ceasefire came into effect.
- Speaking to his Emirati counterpart, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claims that "Tehran is committed to good-neighbourliness and strengthening relations with all neighbours...Illegal attacks of US and Israel pose an unprecedented threat to regional peace and stability.'
- Qatari PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani says that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has called to express Tehran's regret at targeting a military base in Qatar. Al Thani says 'We hope the situation in the Middle East gets contained as soon as possible.' Says that Iranian attacks on Qatar 'will scar relations with Iran', but he 'hopes neighbourly relations will not be damaged'. PM: 'We hope we don't see any hostility in the Gulf neighbourhood in the future...We hope Iran will continue to partner with Qatar and all Gulf countries.'
Separately, there appears to be pressure on Israel to use the ceasefire to continue indirect talks with Hamas over a ceasefire in Gaza. PM: 'In the next to days there will be indrect talks between Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire...We hope that Israel does not take advantage of the ceasefire to keep attacking Gaza.'
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
