EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Ipoteka €300mn 5Y - IPT

Acute move in UK curve will be being carefully watched by the Chancellor and the Treasury this morning - particularly as Chancellor needs to give the OBR 10 weeks notice with which to prepare forecasts (which will incorporate the latest moves in yields).

• 5th November had previously been the most likely date for the Budget, in which case the 10 weeks notice would have to have been given last week, privately.
• As such, we see a November / December Budget looking more probable, with 12th November the earliest potential date (the date could be announced after parliament returns from recess this week).
• Worth noting, however, there is nothing to stop the Budget being later in the year either. For example, in 2020 the Autumn Statement was held on 25 November. Realistically 17th December is the latest possible date.

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3550/3595 High Sep 1 / High Aug 14
• PRICE: 1.3439 @ 08:44 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. However, today’s sell-off undermines the bull theme and attention turns to key short-term support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.3315, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to signal scope for a strong rally.

• RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7 
• RES 2: 0.8703 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg   
• RES 1: 0.8685 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.8683 @ 08:36 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is trading higher today. This has resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at  support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would instead confirm a resumption of the recent bearish threat.