EUROZONE DATA: IP Underperforms Already Weak Expectations In June

Eurozone industrial production was weaker-than-expected in June, at -1.3% M/M (swda, -1.0% cons), with the downward surprise becoming more significant through a -0.6pp revision in May to 1.1% M/M. Volatile Irish data was, again, a major driver (-11.3% vs +11.9% prior). After the tariff front-loading bolstered Q1, Q2 data overall suggests EZ industry is so far not able to exhibit a more durable recovery.

• On an annual basis, production rose just 0.2% Y/Y (cons 1.5%) after a downward revised 3.1% (initially 3.7%) in May, leaving the weakest Y/Y print since January.
• At a component level, non-durable consumer goods were the weakest at -4.7% M/M - this may point towards low pharma production in the light of the weak Ireland print. Elsewhere, there was considerable volatility vs the May data. Intermediate goods and durable consumer goods both saw the third consecutive monthly decline.

• The four major Eurozone economies showed the previously flagged mixed trends. Germany saw a very weak -2.3% M/M, while Italy was almost unchanged at 0.2%. Spain (1.1%) and particularly France (+3.8%) were stronger, meanwhile.