EUROPEAN INFLATION: Eurozone headline HICP tracking 2.3%Y/Y with 2-way risks
Oct-01 08:18
Ahead of this morning's flash Eurozone HICP print, we track the Y/Y print at 2.3%Y/Y with two way risks (this is higher than our estimate yesterday of 2.2-2.3%Y/Y following the 3.05%Y/Y Dutch print which came in higher than consensus).
We think that a 2.4%Y/Y print would be a bit of a surprise, with most sell side updates sticking to their original forecasts of 2.2-2.3%Y/Y (so either 2.2% or 2.3% would be less of a surprise).
The median estimate in the Bloomberg survey is 2.2%Y/Y but 20/44 analysts in the survey look for 2.3% (or higher) - although only 3 of these look for 2.4%Y/Y.
We have so far received data from countries that make up 92.4% of the index.