ARGENTINA: International Reserves

• Our survey of primary dealer analyst expectations shows a median estimate of 75k nonfarm payroll gains in December after 64k in November and -105k in October.
• The private sector should drive this, with a median also of 75k across twelve estimates.
• Public sector payrolls are indeed for the most part seen broadly flat, with a range of -10k to +10k, but Jefferies are a clear standout at 65k owing to timing within the payrolls reference week.
• The unemployment rate is on balance seen rounding down to 4.5% in December from an unrounded 4.56% in November. There’s a wide range here of 4.3% (Jefferies) to 4.7% (Citi) although it’s broadly seen as between 4.5% or 4.6%, unsurprisingly owing to that unrounded 4.56%.
• Average hourly earnings growth is seen at 0.3% M/M after two volatile months with a surprisingly soft 0.14% in Nov and 0.44% in Oct, but with risks skewed lower including just 0.1% from Citi and multiple 0.2% estimates.
• We include selected excerpts of analyst previews in the full MNI US Payrolls Preview (found here). 

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 156.66 @ 15:28 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 156.26/155.12 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14 
• SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7

The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Attention is on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Support to watch lies at 155.12, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper correction.  

• -25,000 FVH6 109-10.5, sell through 109-10.75 post time bid at 1408:28ET, DV01 $1.1M trades, 109-10.5 last (+2.75)
• -15,000 TYH6 112-18, post time bid at 1406:29ET, DV01 $1M, trades 112-17.5 last (+7)