FED: Instant Answers For FOMC Minutes
The FOMC noted disappointing readings on inflation over the first quarter and strong economic momentum and assessed it would take longer than previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2%, according to the minutes of the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting published Wednesday.
- Did any participant mention the possibility of raising the fed funds rate? YES. "Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate."
- How many participants opposed the decision to begin tapering QT in June? Unclear. "Almost all participants" supported starting QT taper in June, but "a few participants indicated that they could have supported a continuation of the current pace of balance sheet runoff at this time or a slightly higher redemption cap on Treasury securities than was decided upon."
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Breakout
- RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.8644 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 0.8635 @ 15:30 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 0.8602/8563 Low Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
A strong rally Friday in EURGBP resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8602, the Mar 22 high and a key resistance. The continuation higher today highlights a range breakout and a resumption of the bull cycle that started Feb 14. 0.8633, 50.0% of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle, has been cleared. This opens 0.8665, the 61.8% retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 0.8563, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: PRELIMINARY Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US
Preliminary forecast summary for May 2024 compared to avg increase for prior year: TIPS 0.11, real extension 0.11Y.
| SECURITY | Estimate | 1Y Avg Incr | Last Year |
| US Tsys | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Agencies | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Credit | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Govt/Credit | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| MBS | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Aggregate | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Long Gov/Cr | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Iterm Credit | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Interm Gov | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Interm Gov/Cr | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| High Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
US: Biden Polling Boost Continues, RFK Could Cost Trump More Than Biden
A new survey from NBC News has provided two positive polling signals for President Biden. Firstly, in a head-to-head with former President Trump, whilst still trailing by 2 points, Biden has strengthened significantly since January when he trailed Trump by 5 points. The survey is the latest by a major pollster to suggest that a polling shift towards Biden is underway.
- Secondly, the survey suggests that third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., may siphon more votes from Trump than Biden - contrary to a long-held prevailing view in Washington.
- NBC reports: “Though the conventional wisdom is that Kennedy is a bigger threat to Biden than to Trump, the numbers here tell a different story: 15% of Trump supporters and 7% of Biden supporters in the head-to-head matchup break for RFK Jr. when the field expands to include third-party candidates.”
Figure 1: Head-to-Head Matchup Between Biden and Trump
Source: NBC News
Figure 2: “How the race shifts in a multi-way field compared to a binary choice”
Source: NBC News
