INDIA: INR Rallies in NDF Space, Could Spark Intervention Speculation

• On the commodity front, a recent move lower in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note that the latest recovery highlights a possible false trendline break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger lies at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
• In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.96. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.

• Treasuries remained under pressure overnight, currently extending lows with the Sep'25 10Y contract back at June 20 levels despite delaying the July 9 tariff deadline to August 1 yesterday.
• Selling continues after after Pres Trump announced 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea Goods. Additional announcements included: 25% tariffs on Malaysia and Kazakhstan, 30% on South Africa and 40% on Laos and Myanmar. Tsys largely ignored the EUs 10% tariff deal "with caveats", negotiations ongoing.
• Currently, the Sep'25 10Y contract trades -3.5 at 110-26 (110-25 low / 111-01.5 high). After trading through support at the 50-day EMA (110-31), sights are on 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break would strengthen a bearish threat. Resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high. 
• Curves bear steepen: 2s10s +2.333 at 50.608 (48.455 low), 5s30s +1.801 at 97.362 (95.370 low); 10Y yield +.0318 at 4.4112% (4.4191% high).
• The USD back near steady (Bbg US$ index -.35 at 1196.16) after scaling back Monday's bounce on the initial Japan/S.Korea tariff headlines.
• Looking ahead - economic data limited to NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations at 1100ET, Consumer Credit at 1500ET. US Tsy auctions $50B 6W & $50B 52W bills at 1130ET, $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CNM9) at 1300ET. No scheduled Fed speakers today, main focus on the release of FOMC minutes for the June meeting tomorrow at 1400ET. 

OI data points to net short setting dominating through the SOFR greens between Thursday and Monday settlements (no settlement Friday, owing to the observance of the Independence Day holiday), before net long cover came to the fore in the blues.